Thoughts on the Market

Facts vs. Predictions

Facts vs. Predictions

February 5, 2025 - Maddy Bodden

After a strong year in 2024, our thoughts now turn to the year ahead. The number one fact that very few predicted would actually come to pass was the US placing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and 10% on oil and gas. The threat of tariffs had been widely seen as a negotiating tactic as the potential damage to both countries could be massive and is in violation of established trade agreements. With some last-minute negotiations, the tariffs have been avoided and Canada will be bolstering its border security and drug enforcement...

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Relativity and Investing

Relativity and Investing

December 3, 2024 - Maddy Bodden

Leonard Susskind, the noted theoretical physicist, famously quoted that Einstein proved that different observers, in different states of motion, see different realities. The markets are constantly in motion. Whether it is earnings, news, rumors, or just normal daily activity, every stock is reacting both to its own forces and in relation to the overall direction of the market. How any of those data points are perceived by the market is dependent on the intentions of the observer.

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The Alignment of the Stars

October 21, 2024 - Maddy Bodden

In the children’s fantasy novel, Peter Pan, these are the directions to Neverland, home of Peter Pan and the Lost Boys. With investing, it is often difficult to know which star to follow as the investment horizon is ever changing, and never totally clear. In recent months, market focus has shifted among inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and even politics. All these items can have a profound effect on markets that must be carefully navigated. This month, we will review these points to determine the best investment path forward.

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RBC Insights

How will Europe respond to U.S. tariff threats?

How will Europe respond to U.S. tariff threats?

February 20, 2025 |Frédérique Carrier

For the European Union, the economic impact of U.S. tariffs will depend on their level and duration. We investigate the implications of rapidly changing U.S. trade policies, and explore how the EU may respond.

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Focus on earnings season

Focus on earnings season

February 18, 2025 |Kelly Bogdanova

Washington, D.C. policy decisions have been in the spotlight of late, but we think investors should not take their eyes off the results and clues coming from Q4 earnings season.

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Canada’s housing market outlook: Sustaining recovery in uncertain times

Canada’s housing market outlook: Sustaining recovery in uncertain times

February 11, 2025 |Robert Hogue

The significant risk that tariffs pose to Canada’s economy casts a potentially dark shadow over the housing market.

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The U.S. deficit, interest rates, and private sector interplay

The U.S. deficit, interest rates, and private sector interplay

February 07, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Economics is rife with self-correcting mechanisms, and we give our thoughts on how that dynamic is likely to play out in the relationship between the U.S. budget deficit and longer-term interest rates.

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Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

February 05, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Tariffs can have many economic impacts, but we think investors should focus on the economic and political goals that are driving decision-making.

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A U.S.-Canada trade shock now in play: first economic takeaways

A U.S.-Canada trade shock now in play: first economic takeaways

February 02, 2025 |Frances Donald and Nathan Janzen
Canada has been hit with its largest trade shock in nearly 100 years. RBC Economics now finds itself balancing the desire to produce a clear analysis with the recognition that the evolution of trade policies, and policymakers’ responses to them, still...
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Will investors see a pause in rate cuts, or the end?

Will investors see a pause in rate cuts, or the end?

January 31, 2025 |Thomas Garretson, CFA

Global central banks this month have offered something for everyone from further interest rates hikes in Japan to rate cuts in Canada and Europe, while the Federal Reserve remained motionless.

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Processing the U.S. legislative process

Processing the U.S. legislative process

January 30, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Every administration enters office with aggressive policy goals. But a lot of give-and-take may be needed to turn goals into policy.

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Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3% amid U.S. trade uncertainty

Video: Bank of Canada cuts interest rate to 3% amid U.S. trade uncertainty

January 30, 2025 |Josh Nye, Canadian Fixed Income Strategist

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate in January to 3% from 3.25% amid ongoing uncertainty over the threat of U.S. tariffs.

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Canada confronts U.S. protectionism

Canada confronts U.S. protectionism

January 29, 2025 |Joseph Wu, CFA

U.S. trade policy is taking a more restrictive turn with potential implications for Canada’s economy and equity market. We think resisting knee-jerk reactions to headlines is the best way to navigate what could be repeated bouts of market volatility.

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