Thoughts on the Market

When we normally talk about March Madness, we are usually referring to the annual NCAA Men’s and Women’s Basketball Tournaments. This year, the broad and sweeping changes of the Trump administration are the main topic of conversation both in Canada and around the world, particularly when it comes to tariffs. Given the level of concern about their possible impact, we will address the challenges posed by tariffs and the current US administration in general and discuss how we are positioning our portfolios to best defend against further unexpected developments.

After a strong year in 2024, our thoughts now turn to the year ahead. The number one fact that very few predicted would actually come to pass was the US placing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and 10% on oil and gas. The threat of tariffs had been widely seen as a negotiating tactic as the potential damage to both countries could be massive and is in violation of established trade agreements. With some last-minute negotiations, the tariffs have been avoided and Canada will be bolstering its border security and drug enforcement...

Leonard Susskind, the noted theoretical physicist, famously quoted that Einstein proved that different observers, in different states of motion, see different realities. The markets are constantly in motion. Whether it is earnings, news, rumors, or just normal daily activity, every stock is reacting both to its own forces and in relation to the overall direction of the market. How any of those data points are perceived by the market is dependent on the intentions of the observer.