Diary of a Portfolio Manager

November 05, 2022 | Todd Kennedy


Share

“Eat at a local restaurant tonight. Get the cream sauce. Have a cold pint at 4 o’clock in a mostly empty bar. Go somewhere you’ve never been. Listen to someone you think may have nothing in common with you. Order the steak rare. Eat an oyster. Have a Negroni. Have two. Be open to a world where you may not understand or agree with the person next to you but have a drink with them anyway's. Eat slowly. Tip your server. Check in on your friends. Check in on yourself. Enjoy the ride.”

The Good Life

If one is interested in pursuing their definition of a ‘good life’, they may wish to take notice of the above visual. What is a ‘good life’? Obviously, different things to different people. Only you know what it means to you. My guess is that it starts with good health for most people. This can fall into the first two items on Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. Click here for more info. Reducing stress and sleeping well are two things that assist in this regard. If you want good relationships with family and friends, it probably helps to be someone that people want to be around. This is the third step on Maslow’s Hierarchy. Reducing stress and sleeping well are two things that assist in this regard. See a pattern?

Easier said than done. I follow the example set by people that I consider to be well-regarded and successful in many facets of life. One trait they seem to possess is the ability to focus on what they can control and a lot less time and energy on what they cannot control. I imagine this has to do wonders for your stress level which in turns leads to better sleep patterns. Yet, every time that I go to a news website, open a newspaper, get an email that I never subscribed to (from someone that I have never heard of claiming to be a financial markets guru), it is all about things that I cannot control. It is also all about things that happened yesterday and probably matter little to the success of a great business over the next 5 – 10 years. Their forecasts and predictions are wrong way more than they are right. One may argue that control is an illusion and I would not disagree with them too much but you have to start somewhere and believe in something.

Next time something is really nagging at you, ask yourself: Is this is the out of my control bucket or more aligned with the in my control bucket? If it is the former, take two deep breaths. Wait 30 seconds. Maybe move on to something else. It might not help but it definitely won’t hurt.

October has often been called a bear killer

Is that the case in 2022? Too soon to know yet it was a great month portfolio wise. The S&P 500 finished the month up 8% (The Dow Jones, which we pay less attention to as it is only 30 stocks, was up an eye watering 13.95%). Closer to home, the TSX index closed the month up 5.3% and is one of the best performing markets so far in 2022. Pretty decent given all the headlines suggesting Armageddon.

I am often asked why the stock market and the economy fall out of alignment. A good reason came across my desk this past week. The overall economy – as measured by GDP - is driven by about 70% services provided (the electrician coming to your house to install a light fixture) and 30% goods sold (the actual light fixture itself). The earnings on the S&P 500, in particular, are the opposite. 70% of earnings can be attributed to good sold and 30% from service providers. This is because most services are provided by small businesses whereas the large global businesses make and sell actual goods. Make sense? You know you can call us to discuss if not.

Keeping it short for now.

Enjoy the ride,

J. Todd Kennedy, CIM, FCSI

Senior Portfolio Manager

613-566-4582

toddkennedy.ca