The BIG Picture

The longstanding relationship between the U.S. and Europe is changing, with deep consequences for the euro area and its economy. We look into the impact of this metamorphosis on the corporate sector and discuss the related investment opportunities.

The White House has made broad interpretations of existing legislative authority to make unilateral policy moves. We examine how this centralized ad hoc decision-making raises structural concerns and how the economic policy framework may evolve.

The market backdrop appears constructive, with the U.S. government shutdown now behind us and a strong earnings season bolstering equity market sentiment.

The greenback’s volatile year underscores the interplay between cyclical drivers and longer-term valuation challenges—factors that could have implications for global equity leadership.

We’re increasingly of the view that a series of disruptions are masking a very real cyclical U.S. economic slowdown underneath the surface.

Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...

Approaching the one-month point of the U.S. federal government shutdown, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been forced to make an interest rate decision with only partial visibility into the economy.

The S&P 500 has remained impressively resilient from a technical perspective. But we think some areas of the market are bottoming, supporting our belief that investors should consider rebalancing portfolios.

The U.S. federal government remains shut down. For now, investor attention is shifting to the Q3 earnings season.