The BIG Picture

Proof point: The timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada will be determined by domestic economic and inflation conditions and not the gap in monetary policy with the U.S. Federal Reserve or the value of the Canadian dollar....

The past few weeks have seen more meaningful activity across global equity marked by an increase in volatility. Two developments were particularly noteworthy.

Global equity markets have been somewhat directionless over the past few weeks, likely taking a breather after a reasonably good first quarter.

Federal government efforts to limit non-permanent resident arrivals will likely slow the pace of gross domestic product growth in 2025 and beyond. However, per-capita GDP, the unemployment rate, broader inflation pressures, and interest rate expectations...

Global equities have continued to perform well as of late. But more noteworthy has been the breadth of the rally, with a variety of sectors, and not just technology, enjoying significant gains.

Markets have trended higher in recent weeks, with performance in regions outside the U.S. being notably stronger.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held the overnight rate unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, extending a pause that started after the last hike in July last year. 

Canadian wage growth has been unusually high, but looks more modest when measured against surging inflation and relative to acute labour shortages earlier in the pandemic recovery. Now lagging productivity in Canada (along with a softening labour market...

Global equity markets have come out swinging start to the year. U.S. economic data has exceeded expectations, with the latest inflation reading suggesting a modest uptick in price pressures.