The U.S. deficit, interest rates, and private sector interplay

The U.S. deficit, interest rates, and private sector interplay

February 07, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Economics is rife with self-correcting mechanisms, and we give our thoughts on how that dynamic is likely to play out in the relationship between the U.S. budget deficit and longer-term interest rates.

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Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

Tariffs’ leverage extends far beyond trade

February 05, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Tariffs can have many economic impacts, but we think investors should focus on the economic and political goals that are driving decision-making.

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Will investors see a pause in rate cuts, or the end?

Will investors see a pause in rate cuts, or the end?

January 31, 2025 |Thomas Garretson, CFA

Global central banks this month have offered something for everyone from further interest rates hikes in Japan to rate cuts in Canada and Europe, while the Federal Reserve remained motionless.

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Processing the U.S. legislative process

Processing the U.S. legislative process

January 30, 2025 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Every administration enters office with aggressive policy goals. But a lot of give-and-take may be needed to turn goals into policy.

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Is 2025 the beginning of a small-cap renaissance?

Is 2025 the beginning of a small-cap renaissance?

January 24, 2025 |Kyle Bergacker, CFA

After years of small-cap underperformance relative to large-cap counterparts, the tide looks to be turning. We look at why investors shouldn’t overlook this aspect of the 2025 equity outlook as small caps seem poised to return to form.

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Pay attention to triggers for Europe

Pay attention to triggers for Europe

January 16, 2025 |Frédérique Carrier

Due to structural headwinds, we downgraded European equities to Underweight in December. Yet a number of catalysts could occur in Q1 that could be well received by equity markets. We peruse the opportunities that may emerge in European equities.

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U.S. equity returns in 2024: Premium performance

U.S. equity returns in 2024: Premium performance

January 10, 2025 |Kelly Bogdanova

We pinpoint five reasons why U.S. equities capped off a banner year in 2024 and why investors were willing to pay for premium valuations. We also offer thoughts on the environment in 2025 and how to approach portfolio positioning.

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Trend & Cycle 2025 Technical Outlook

Trend & Cycle 2025 Technical Outlook

January 08, 2025 |Robert Sluymer, CFA

Studying trends and cycles can provide a more informed view of market dynamics. We look at potential pause points, market breadth, and key interest rate levels to gauge prospects for equity upside in 2025 and how to approach sector positioning.

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The Fed approaches a new phase of interest rate policy

The Fed approaches a new phase of interest rate policy

December 19, 2024 |Atul Bhatia, CFA

Markets head lower following a hawkish rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. We discuss the reasons behind the Fed’s shift and if investors really need to fear higher rates caused by stronger growth.

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U.S. productivity renaissance

U.S. productivity renaissance

December 12, 2024 |Joseph Wu, CFA

Higher productivity has propelled the U.S. economy ahead of its major peers in recent years, offering a blueprint for other countries and raising the stakes in the global race to harness emergent technologies such as GenAI.

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