Below is a summary of some of the relevant news items from the Capital Markets and the Economy from the past week extracted from RBC Global Insights and FactSet Research.

You can catch up on the past four weeks’ Weekly Update in the link to my Blog.

Read my latest Smart Investor newsletter on my website. The Q2 2025 edition covers Market Review for Q1 2025, the impact of tariffs on markets, and how to position your portfolio during a time of disruption. Shiuman’s Corner is about the art of retail in Japan.

Markets

Market scorecard as of close on Friday July 18, 2025.

Country	Equity Indices	Level	1 week	YTD
Canada	S&P/TSX Composite	27,314	1.1%	10.5%
U.S.	S&P 500	6,297	0.6%	7.1%
U.S.	NASDAQ	20,896	1.5%	8.2%
Europe/Asia	MSCI EAFE	2,648	-0.3%	16.7%

Source: FactSet

• TSX finished lower in Friday afternoon trading, near worst levels. Most sectors down. Canadian equities recorded a 1.1% weekly gain boosted by tech. The TSX is up 10.5% year-to-date.
• US equities finished mostly lower in Friday trading, remaining in a tight range for much of the fairly uneventful session. S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell all logged weekly gains; Nasdaq (very narrowly) set a fresh record closing high.

Economy

Canada

• Canada’s labour market shows signs of stability. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in June as the economy added more than 83,000 jobs, primarily in part-time positions. We think June’s improvement signals a stabilizing labour market and reduces the urgency for monetary stimulus as Canada’s job market continues to show resilience amid ongoing economic challenges.
• Canadian core inflation rises in June. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% y/y in June, slightly above May’s rate, as upward pressure on prices continued to stem from domestically produced ex-shelter services. This reinforces market expectations for the BoC to hold interest rates steady in July as inflationary pressures persist above target levels.

U.S.

• The saga of President Donald Trump threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell escalated again last week as reports that Trump had privately decided on, and drafted, a plan to fire Powell were walked back almost immediately by Trump himself. But they briefly rocked markets—stocks and the dollar fell sharply, while longer-term Treasury yields spiked.
• On that note, RBC Capital Markets changed its Fed call last week. After previously seeing three rate cuts this year beginning in September, it now sees just one, in December. Notably, prior to the market chaos of April, RBC Capital Markets was already forecasting no rate cuts this year, so this potential outcome is not a new risk.

Further Afield

• The European Union (EU) Commission laid out its nearly €2 trillion fiscal plans for its next seven-year budget cycle starting in 2028. It seeks to reconcile traditional priorities such as agriculture with emerging demands like defence, while granting member states greater autonomy over their spending.
• China’s Q2 2025 GDP growth, at 5.2% y/y, came in stronger than expected after 5.4% growth the previous quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected 5.1%. Economists were quick to point out that strong exports to countries other than the U.S. overshadowed weak domestic consumer demand. Many believe the relative economic resilience gives China room and time to prepare for more measures in case trade tensions with the U.S. escalate again.

Feel free to contact me with any questions and/or to discuss investment ideas.

Regards,

Shiuman

 

PS: To unsubscribe, simply reply with “Unsubscribe” in the subject line.