Below is a summary of some of the relevant news items from the Capital Markets and the Economy from the past week extracted from RBC Global Insights and FactSet Research.

You can view the past four weeks’ Weekly Update in the link to my Blog.

Read my latest Smart Investor newsletter on my website. The Q4 2023 edition covers Market Review, the Type of Recession we may have, and how to build Resilience in portfolios.

 

Markets

Market scorecard as of close on Friday November 24, 2023.

Country	Equity Indices	Level	1 week	YTD
Canada	S&P/TSX Composite	20,103	-0.4%	3.7%
U.S.	S&P 500	4,559	1.0%	18.7%
U.S.	NASDAQ	14,251	0.9%	36.2%
Europe/Asia	MSCI EAFE	2,101	1.1%	8.1%

Source: FactSet

• S&P/TSX Composite finished slightly lower in Friday afternoon trading, down 0.4% for the week.

• US equities were little changed in a very quiet shortened Friday trading session (after Thanksgiving). However, the S&P and Nasdaq capped off a fourth-straight week of gains. S&P 500 was up 1.0% for the week.

• Market devoid of meaningful catalysts. Big story over last few weeks has been an outsized easing of financial conditions and related ramp in risk sentiment driven by the intertwined disinflation traction, soft landing and peak Fed narratives. Positioning, seasonality and return of corporate buybacks also flagged as supportive.

 

Economy

Canada

• The federal government announces $20.8 billion in net new policy action over 6 years since Budget 2023 – 30% of which ($6.3 billion) will be allocated to housing affordability initiatives. Near-term spending is restrained as the bulk of new measures aren’t slated until FY2025-26.

• Canadian GDP likely edged lower in Q3 – we expect at a -0.5% (annualized) decline that would be slightly softer than the preliminary -0.1% estimate from Statistics Canada a month ago. Early data for the fourth quarter does not look much better.

• Canadian CPI dropped to 3.1% in October. The three-month average rate of month-over-month increases (a measure watched closely by the BoC) slowed to an annualized 2.7% for the CPI-median and 3.1% for the trim measure.

U.S.

• Black Friday spending was strong in the U.S. Early data from Mastercard shows Black Friday sales rose 2.5% compared to 2022. Jewellery and apparel drove spending, while Americans also splurged on sporting events and restaurants.

• As long as the labour market continues to churn out jobs and wages continue to grow, this should help provide ongoing support for the household consumption pillar of the U.S. economy.

Further Afield

• This week, investors will focus on an OPEC+ meeting that will be held on Thursday. Among the issues expected to be addressed is whether to extend/deepen production cuts into 2024 considering the drop in oil prices since September.

 

Feel free to contact me with any questions and/or to discuss investment ideas.

I appreciate the opportunity to serve you and look forward to continuing to help you accomplish your long-term financial goals.

 

Regards,

Shiuman