A short one today. I saw this chart from Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank Research and laughed out loud.
The red line is the actual Federal Reserve interest rate. The dotted black lines are what the Fed Funds Futures markets had forecast were the future direction of US interest rates. The supposed smartest people with the most computing power to help them could not predict the future of THE most important Central Bank in the world. You think people follow the Kardashians closely? You ain’t seen nothing like the analysts that follow the US Federal Reserve.
Example #437 of why forecasting is a crap shoot and you shouldn’t pay too much attention to predictions for the future. Plan to fit your goals and needs and forget about people toting crystal balls.
Sam Rook, Investment Advisor
Contact me if you want a professional that invests and plans using reality, not a crystal ball.