The Second Wave?

Ever since March, the majority of investment and medical experts shared a common theme – expect a second wave. The challenge, of course, is always timing. In the case of stock markets, (maybe) testing March’s lows, sell too soon and miss the bulk of the gains, and in the case of Covid cases, lock down again too soon or too much and face even greater financial disruption and economic woes. The reality is there is not a perfect answer except, as always, in hindsight.

Nevertheless, as I write this on Sunday morning, it does appear the second wave is at hand. Covid cases continue to increase sharply everywhere and new restrictions were imposed in many parts of Europe, the UK and even close to home in Ontario. The renewed outbreaks and an absence of “stimulating” news from Central Governments’ “stimulus” programs led to the third week of market losses. The S&P500 is down 5.4% in three weeks, and most of the performance leading technology or “stay at home” beneficiary stocks have fallen anywhere from 15% to 20%; think Apple, Amazon, and Netflix, to name a few.

Last week, the main winners were non-North American. The emerging markets index, mainly China up 1.3% and Shanghai rising 2.4% (side bar – which major country’s economy has emerged relatively unscathed from Covid19? Hmmm), while the large EAFE index was +0.7% (EAFE = Europe, Australia and the Far East). The TSX barely moved, as energy and technology losses were offset by rallies in the REIT and utility sectors.

I expect a challenging start to the week as we are back on the old Teeter-Totter (see April 6th TWTW on our website). This time we are adding the fast approaching US Presidential elections to the challenges of the pandemic. The opposite side of the see-saw is, of course, the promise of a vaccine and a return to some semblance of the old normal. As well, we have VERY low and lowering borrowing costs. The UK may be the next country to go to negative rates, with the potential of more government direct financial help to workers and corporations.

Strategy – a mix of “work at home”, balanced by “back to work” companies seems prudent. Add in an appropriate cash reserve for any future bargains and a touch of gold (my stance: much higher inflation is coming) and you should be well positioned for the very interesting months ahead.

September 14, 2020 - Not A Lot To Cheer About

September 9, 2020 - Hump Day then Thump Day

August 31, 2020 - ASA Coming To The Fore

August 24, 2020 - The Debate Intensifies!

August 17,2020 -Potpourri

August 10, 2020- When Bad News is Good News

August 4,2020 - Three Records of Note

July 27, 2020 - Vaccine Vs Virus - Round 2

July 20, 2020 - Vaccine Vs Virus-Fight On!

July 13, 2020- A Week of Highs & Lows

July 6, 2020 - Economy VS Covid Cases

June 29, 2020 - A Bridge Too Far

June 22, 2020 - What Me Worry?

June 15, 2020-Reality Check??

June 8, 2020- It's All About The Workers

June 1, 2020 - Can We Bank on The Banks??

May 25, 2020- A Very Good Week For Stocks

May 19, 2020- Hedgehoppers Anonymous

May 11, 2020 - Was Monty Python Right?

May 4,2020 - Balancing the Teeter-Totter

April 27, 2020 - Oil - Another reason...

April 20, 2020- The Curate's Egg

April 13, 2020- Governor Cuomo Knows Best

April 6, 2020-  Stock Markets - It's a Teeter-Totter

March 30, 2020 - Stuck Like Glue

March 23, 2020-As Always, Bob Dylan Has The Answer

March 16, 2020 - Show Me The Money

March 9, 2020 - Interest Rates-The Race to Zero

March 2, 2020 - The Unknown Unknowns

February 24, 2020 - It's Always The Unexpected

February 18, 2020 - Oh (Dear!) Canada

February 10, 2020 - Sick Or Not I'm Going To Work

February 3, 2020 - A Turn For The Worse

January 27, 2020- Run For The Exits!!

January 20, 2020 - All Aboard!!!

January 13,2020 -  The Year That Was - A Wall of Worry

December 16, 2019 - Dear Santa

December 9,2019 - Those Who Live by The Tweet...

December 2,2019 - Taylor Swift

November 18, 2019 - Like The Duck in the Pond

November 11, 2019 - A "RISK ON" WEEK

November 4, 2019 - What About The Workers?

October 28, 2019 - Trick or Treat

October 21, 2019- The Gains Continue

October 15, 2019 - All We Are Saying.....

October 7, 2019 - Saved By The Workers!!

September 30, 2019 - Second Verse Same As The First!!

September 23, 2019 - About Face!

September 16, 2019-UP In Smoke

September 3, 2019 - The Sleeping Giant is Awake

August  26, 2019 -WOW!

August 19, 2019- "Do I Feel Lucky? Well,do ya, punk?"

August 12, 2019- Recession Rumblings

August 6, 2019-Coin Toss Part 2 - It came up HEADS!! = Bonds

July 29,  2019 - THe US Economy and Stocks (still) Lead The Way

Coin Toss- HEADS = Bonds  TAILS = Stocks

A Short USA Holiday

July 2,2019 - A Friday Rally Helped Cap An Impressive Month of Gains

June 24 - The Only Missiles Launched last Week were Financial Ones!! Whew!!!

June 17 - The Calm Before The Storm

June 10, 2019 - The Powell Put #2

May 29, 2019 - What To Do For An Encore

May 27,2019 - Let's Make A Deal

May 13, 2019 - When Elephants Fight