Morsky Memo

As expected, the Fed held off on a rate cut this week. But as policymakers await more economic data before a likely September rate cut, the data may already be signaling the central bank is too late.

Relative comfort on inflation should allow the Fed to shift its focus to the goal of full employment. But with labor market data pointing in different directions, we sift through the mixed messages and the impact on the Fed’s rate cut plans.

After a first interest rate cut in June, the Bank of Canada (BoC) again lowered its key overnight rate by 25 basis points at its meeting Wednesday, to 4.5%. The move was in line with market and our own expectations ahead of the announcement.

While mega-cap tech stocks have dominated U.S. equity performance so far this year, recently the rest of the market has been trying to take the baton. We discuss the main factors needed to make a clean handoff.

The latest Business Outlook Survey largely confirmed further normalizing in a few key areas that the central bank has deemed critical to future inflation trends.

While AI and the Magnificent 7 have been exceedingly visible in their leadership, we spotlight two other trends with a clear impact on portfolio performance and how to approach U.S. equities as the economic environment inevitably evolves.

Find out three ways U.S. debt can affect Canada.

The federal government’s debt has doubled since 2015 – and shows no signs of turning around.

Proof point: The timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada will be determined by domestic economic and inflation conditions and not the gap in monetary policy with the U.S. Federal Reserve or the value of the Canadian dollar....