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Three years ago, all Recession Scorecard indicators were rated expansionary green suggesting to us that the U.S. economy was on a firm footing with a long way to run. However, the picture has become decidedly more mixed.
With the centerpiece of U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic agenda winding its way through Congress, we examine what’s of key interest to markets and investors, before noting why the ultimate outcome of the bill is likely to look different.
Equity markets have bounced back smartly in Q2. Technical analysis suggests a move higher into early-to-mid-Q3, but investors should watch the U.S. dollar, and more importantly, 30-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.
The U.S. equity market has taken investors on a bumpy roller coaster ride, leaving some of us queasy. We discuss what drove the rally, lingering risks, and the market’s potential from here.
U.S. government borrowing costs on longer-maturity debt have risen more quickly than on shorter-maturity debt since so-called reciprocal tariffs were announced. We discuss what drove that reaction and why the difference is likely to persist.
Questions regarding the Federal Reserve’s price stability and maximum employment mandates abound. We look at what investors should know at a time when there is a lack of clarity regarding the central bank’s next moves.
Running up debts to buy foreign goods is unsustainable in the long term. Identifying the problem is simple, but we see no easy or quick escape for the U.S. from the imbalances built up over the last four decades.
The Fed has often been quick to cut rates to help support the economy during slowdowns. We look at why the current combination of potential inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty may leave the Fed sidelined longer than some investors may hope.
As the U.S. and China continue their tariff battle, we look at the potential impact of tariffs on China’s economic growth and what steps China equities investors should take if there is a market rebound.
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