Good afternoon – somebody took a bite out of the century, and next week, it’ll be a quarter gone!
When did that… what the…? Well… Hmm...
Wow.
The Christmassy quote below, from a veteran Wall Street Journal opinion columnist, Peggy Noonan, reflects my sentiments nicely. Mind you, it’s not a financial market comment so much as a reflection. Our circumstances are often better than the headlines suggest.
Here’s the quote:
“Optimists tend to think the right, nice thing will happen, and I don’t necessarily. But I have faith and I have hope. Life takes guts. Don’t let all the bad news enter you and steal your peace. Keep the large things in your head. Two millennia ago a baby was born and the whole ridiculous story—the virgin, the husband, the stable, the star—is true, and changed the world. Compared to which our current concerns are nothing.” (Peggy Noonan)
If there’s a hankering worry as we step into the second quarter of the 21st century, it’s that we (markets, governments, etc.) have lately tended to lean a bit too heavily on the future, leveraging future work, payments, earnings. I’ll spare you a long, boring macroeconomic rant on it. But it’s something to watch in 2025 and beyond.
Global Insight Weekly - written Dec 19/24. (Because a day matters a heck of a lot when markets are bouncing around like Trump’s hair piece in a windstorm.)
Are we there yet?
Markets head lower following a hawkish rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. We discuss the reasons behind the Fed’s shift and if investors really need to fear higher rates caused by stronger growth.
Regional developments: Canadian headline CPI ticks below consensus; Extraordinarily narrow market breadth within the S&P 500 continues for a second year; BOE: A dovish pause, select opportunities in Europe; China home prices continue to fall but at a slower pace.
More here: Global Insight Weekly.
This Christmas upstager: It’s been tricky for Santa and the Ryans this month. Our beautiful new grandson was born Dec 6th, arriving surprisingly over 3 weeks early, sending us into a wee bit of a tailspin at the workshop. Juggling travel over the busiest travel weeks of the year, gift-getting, and making goo-goo eyes at this adorable little boy in blue. Add in the postal strike, frankly a few gifts just didn’t fly this year.
Just look at this little precious adorable little cutie pie!
Next month little William and me will be having a little chat about monetary policy, and the obvious counterproductivity of excessive Keynesian fiscal measures.
And on day 2, the over-reliance on unrealistic laboratory conditions implied in the Modigliani Miller Hypothesis.
Right?
I’ll let you know how it goes
Enjoy your weekend.
Enjoy all the sweet things the season brings.
And from our home and hearth to yours, a very Merry Christmas and a happy new year.
Mark