Good afternoon,
Living in Prince George and north-central BC since 1991, Jasper has been among our family’s greatest joys. It’s the most beautiful park on earth, and I’ll debate that with anyone. Our eldest daughter worked in Yellowstone for a summer a few years ago, but even that famous landscape bored her after being a Jasper frequenter growing up.
This week, this national treasure, including the townsite itself, was hit by an unthinkable wildfire. Although it will take a longer than we have left to live to before it’s fully restored, the park will be spectacular again as early as next year.
As one young man said: “Dude, if parks were girlfriends, Jasper is a 10.” Said another way, even if my wife’s hair all fell out, she’d still be beautiful to me.
Jasper’s beauty runs deeper than her forests and structures. There are her grasslands, her mountains, rivers, and glacial headwaters branching north to the artic and south, all the way past Huck Finn’s raft to the Gulf of Mexico. And then there’s that special brand of wildlife -- those crunchy people who materialize in Jasper, as if having walked out of a Clint Eastwood movie, climbed onto the back of an elk, clopped through a Mountain Equipment Co-op, and arrived at the park eating pinecones and yogurt, with a Starbucks in their hiking hipster flask.
Jasper people are like tree planters, but after taking a shower.
1000 Words: I took this dusky picture last summer about an hour from Prince George on a wilderness plateau ravaged by a forest fire about ten years earlier. It’s one of my favourite drives in the area. I can never not gawk at the marvel of new growth overtaking that charcoal toothpick landscape
Forest Fires Over Time: In the graph below, the black line denotes the surprising gentle reduction in the number of fires since the late 80’s. The blue bars represent land area burnt nationally in a given year, and is harder get a trendline from, especially with last year’s extreme results. It also appears to have peaked in the 80’s and 90’s, then moderately reduced until last year. All of which might not mean much in terms of human causes/solutions.
Meandering Doom: Last summer I spent a few days behind a fire block, setting up sprinklers at a recreational property. On my way home, I came across dozens of little flare-ups, which caused me to lose most of that night’s sleep stomping them out and hacking away at them.
The best way to describe these little smoldering, deer paths is that to say they are alive -- in a sort of Hitchcockian way. They wonder around the forest floor aimlessly, about 16 inches wide, like a fawn browsing the willows. They look like ominous beaver trails of charcoal and red-hot peat. After a while, their path is blocked by a blown down tree or a dry stump, or the dry needly base of a mature spruce. Then the little fire nestles in and sits down for a snack -- in no hurry. Over the space of maybe 30 minutes, it’s about the size of a chair, (like the one on the left) then a couch, then a tree, then a forest.
Multiply this by thousands 
Okay Boomer… What about Finance?
First, this week’s Global Insights Package:
Dueling data and a dual mandate
Relative comfort on inflation should give the Fed room to shift its focus to the goal of full employment. But with labor market data pointing in different directions, we sift through the mixed messages and look at how this all fits into the Fed’s thinking about future interest rate cuts.
Regional developments: Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 4.5% from 4.75%; U.S. equities struggle on lackluster tech results, but GDP surprises; Lackluster European earnings season; Japan stocks correct on tech selloff and yen strength
More here: Global Insight Weekly
And Some Charts:
U.S. election: Don’t bet on specific policy or sector impacts (see chart below from Fidelity): “There are very few consistent patterns of relative sector returns in election years, which makes placing sector bets around partisan outcomes very risky. There are dramatic differences between the proposals expressed on the campaign trail and the actual policy changes that take place once the candidate is in office. It's exceedingly rare that a candidate will be able to deliver on exactly what they've proposed once they take office.”
In short, the crafters of the US constitution were in no small way concerned with limiting the powers of government. And that’s why (insert name of unwanted candidate here) is not likely to be able to completely ruin everything all at once
China has become more like Japan in several ways: low inflation rate, low population growth and low policy rate (see chart below): “To measure the phenomena of slow growth, low inflation, and low policy rate, a Japanese economist, Takatoshi Ito, introduced a Japanification Index, which is reflected and modified below.
takeaways: 1) Despite what we all thought in the 80’s, nobody wants to be Japanified today. 2) Despite what we all thought in the 2010’s, China seems doomed to becoming Japanified now. And, 3) In the west generally, despite our best intentions, Japanificatipon might be coming to a former elementary school playground near you (and me).
Lastly: We want more grandchildren. So hurry up and make us some. They are, in a very real way, our true national treasure.
Paris, le Walmart des Olympiques? I did not see that coming! This may be the cheapest summer Olympics in decades, but will it be profitable? (see chart below from Scotiabank Economics).
…
Quick question: Do all the athletes have to provide urine samples at the Paris Olympics?
Answer: Oui Oui.
Question: And what does one do with the urine sample, once the little bottle is filled?
Answer: Baguette
The weather has been graciously moderating this week, and rain has provided a measure of relief for fire fighters, as well as our yellowing lawns. And… I do believe it’s going to be a good year for wild blueberries!!!!!!
Enjoy your weekend!
Fire fighters, stay safe!
Mark