Good afternoon,
I can’t not comment on the impending Capital Gains Tax increase, but I’ll keep it short. I’ve written a few professional-sounding letters over the years, and I thought this one might contribute to a thoughtful discussion:
Dear Minister of Finance,
Nobody likes you.
Sincerely,
Canada
Ps
We’re considering a citizen’s proposal to amend the name of our beautiful country from Canada to Better-not-ada. While we’re at it, you may want to look at changing your name from Ms. Freeland, to Ms. Expensiveland!”
Some Actual Analysis:
Launching into summer and the long weekend, we’ll start off with 3 videos from our group, focusing on the economic, investment, and fixed income over the next few months.
Strange Coincidence:
- The first two of these three helpful videos are exactly 11 minutes and 27 seconds long;
- Both are delivered by bald smart guys working for RBC.
- I checked, and these are definitely not created by our AI money bots while the real guys are relaxing at the lake. But…
- Mercy sakes alive, looks like we got us a convoy!
The three segments follow: They’re real.
Economic Outlook - Summer 2024 (11:27 min)
GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Chief Economist Eric Lascelles shares his outlook for potential rate cuts in the U.S., the economic impact of the U.S. election, and much more.
Eric Lascelles
Jun. 24, 2024
Capital Markets Outlook – Summer 2024 (11:27 min)
GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Chief Investment Officer Dan Chornous outlines his 2024 global economic outlook, details his concerns about inflation, and shares his asset mix positioning in the current environment.
Dan Chornous, CFA
Jun. 24, 2024
Fixed income markets & currency outlook - Summer 2024 (5 min and change)
GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Dagmara Fijalkowski, Head of Global Fixed Income and Currencies, shares her outlook for bond yields and interest rates. In addition, Dan Mitchell, Senior Portfolio Manager, dives into how the U.S. dollar may benefit following the country’s recent economic resilience.
Dagmar Fijalkowski, MBA, CFA, D.Mitchell, CFA
Jun. 24, 2024
And here’s some more summer analysis to look through:
Midyear market perspectives for investors
Find out where things stand and what’s to come.
The fight against inflation. Recessions risks. Shifting central bank policy from rate hikes to cuts. And mounting U.S. debt lurks in the background, which can impact Canada. This special 2024 Midyear Outlook showcases RBC Wealth Management’s unique perspectives that can help to navigate the road ahead while identifying the catalysts and opportunities to optimize portfolios.
Full report: 2024 Midyear Outlook
Highlights include:
U.S. debt dilemma: No quick fixes and no catastrophes
Commentators frequently conflate the federal government’s debt with the nation’s—a critical mistake, in our view. We dig into how investors should be thinking about fiscal policy and the debt and discuss why neither catastrophes nor quick fixes are likely.
Global equity: Trees don’t grow to the sky
We don’t believe markets are finished moving higher. But thinking about risk appetite and having a plan for becoming more defensive when conditions dictate are things to contemplate in coming months. With stocks no longer compellingly cheap and investor sentiment increasingly complacent, we favor a cautious, watchful approach.
Global fixed income: The only certainty is uncertainty
The global monetary policy easing cycle has finally commenced. But how far it will run and for how long remain unclear. Regardless of the timing, or scope, of rate cuts, it’s clear to us that we have reached the point where yields are now likely to trend lower. We explain what we think the next step should be for investors heading into the second half of the year.
Regional commentary
Our regional analysts present their views of equity and fixed income markets, currencies, and commodities, as well as how to position portfolios.
U.S. Recession Scorecard: Clouding over
Our U.S. Recession Scorecard saw an important negative shift in May when a third leading indicator was re-rated to recessionary red. A fourth may undergo a similar shift in the next couple of months. Equity investors should be aware that risks of the U.S. economy slipping into recession in the coming months are rising.
It’s Summer:
A couple of travel questions to ponder:
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Would we all burst into flames if we quit body-scanning innocent travellers just to seize their bottled liquids? When did hand lotion become a national security risk?
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Would the entire fabric of this country disintegrate into anarchy we didn’t repeat every single incessant airplane seatbelt announcement in French!!?? If Quebec is that fragile, can you just send them a tanker full of hand lotion or something? I’m thinking you have extra by now.
One of our beautiful daughters was married this past week, and today we are celebrating in Regina with her new extended family – our first vist to this big o’l sheet of a province, with its open air and plenty. I’ve always held nothing but respect for the hardy prairie dwellers who carved out their lives here, feeding half the world in the process.
Enjoy your long weekend in this great big awesome country of ours!
Don’t let the Busheviks get you down!
Mark