Good afternoon,

 

Friday was an up day on the end of a down week as we continue to lump along through the post-pandemic swarm of swarming financial parts.

 

Weekly Insights:

 

The art of central banking (or Why the Referees Want to be all Three Stars in the Hockey Game) “The Federal Reserve took a paint-by-numbers approach to its latest policy decision, delivering all the brushstrokes markets were looking for. But in doing so, we think policymakers missed an opportunity to express themselves in a freer, perhaps more impressionistic way. And the market reaction this week reflects that.”

 

The next Fed announcement may or may not be delivered by interpretive dance.

 

Regional developments: Weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP not enough to derail the Bank of Canada; U.S. debt limit tension as cash crunch approaches; European rates up, UK oil stocks down; Mixed macro data in Asia

 

Full Story Here: Global Insight Weekly.

 

A Couple of Charts Worth Looking at:

 

U.S. economy still appears late-cycle (see chart below from RBC Global Asset Management): “The U.S. business cycle scorecard has again delivered an ‘end of cycle’ conclusion, but the ‘recession’ counterclaim has strengthened further and is now nearly as persuasive. There continues to be a notable ‘start of cycle’ counterclaim—arguing that the worst is already over and a new cycle is beginning. The ‘end of cycle’ is still the dominant claim: Our collection of recession models continue to indicate that the U.S. is probably not in a recession right now, but warn that the U.S. continues to have an elevated chance of falling into one over the coming year.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global luxury market breakdown by category (see chart below from the Financial Times): “With fears of a global recession lingering, can the sector’s growth continue undaunted? It all hangs on the US and China, the twin growth engines of luxury and its biggest consumer markets.”

 

(Snarky Note: Broadly describe each of the category bubbles below, into a) super good stuff enjoyed with loved ones in private, and b) shiny objects to brag about. Then draw your own conclusions on it… My Conclusion: King Charles should work as a Walmart greeter.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

Mark