Good afternoon,

 

We’re starting off again with a glance at a couple of charts today:

 

Inflation tax: Bloomberg says: “Inflation will mean the average U.S. household has to spend an extra $5,200 this year ($433 per month) compared to last year for the same consumption basket.”

 

In short, we’re still ferreting out supply chains, pandemic fund-dungery, and of course, war.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canada-U.S. debt-to-disposable-income diverges. The RBC Capital Markets chart shows that Canada overtook the U.S. ten years ago and the gap has widened since; debt to disposable income is now 30% higher on comparable definitions. To be clear, it’s the U.S. which is the outlier (others like AU, SWE, NO, NZ look the same or worse than Canada). But for all the fears of the Fed tipping the U.S. into recession, we hear surprisingly little for other central banks.”

 

 

Special Note regarding Chief Economist Eric Lascelles: Although my wife says Lascelles looks pretty good with a fully-shaved head, I’m told he’s been studiously avoiding Vegreville, Alberta, home of the world’s largest Ukrainian-style Easter egg. Something about a run-in with a group of eager children, involving paint and a bad rash.

 

Also from Eric Lascelles: Our latest #MacroMemo covers more salient topics, such as:

War in Ukraine

Economic Developments

Goods versus services

Supply chain improvements

Central bank tightening

Declining trust

Unsynchronized COVID wave

 

LEARN MORE

 

Covid/Office Update: It’s been a long time between in-person visits. We’re fully-operational now, yet of course still mindful of the varied Covid sensitivities and risk levels many manage. We’re ready if you are, but we are also more capable than ever at remote visits if that’s your preference. We’ll be in touch!   On a personal note: It’s Easter weekend, a time of solemn reverence for many of us, and a pleasant long-weekend for most. My siblings and I are enjoying what will be our last visit with our ailing mom, which adds to the holiday’s significance for us.   Wishing you all a very Happy Easter – and hoping just about as fervently for a mostly-absentee spring to push off this chilly weather!   Enjoy your weekend.

Mark