Needless to say, it has been a very good start to the market this year. There’s just no two ways about it – it feels good! And while a correction can happen at any time and for reasons that sometimes we can’t foresee, I see no reason why we shouldn’t enjoy this recent run. I continue to believe that an economy that continues to grow and rate cuts that will likely happen over the next few months will be supportive of both bonds and stocks.
On October 11th of this year, I will be celebrating my 30th anniversary in this business. I can assure you, I did not last this long by being a great predictor of where the market is going at any given time. Trying to predict with any certainty any movement in the market, particularly in the short term, is useless. Yet I see people trying to do this every day. For example, just a few weeks ago, I wrote in my update about the fact that the US election was a toss-up. After President Biden’s disastrous debate performance and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump last weekend, you would be hard pressed to find any pundit or commentator who doesn’t think Trump will win now. I honestly think this is a mistake. If history has taught us anything, we should all know by now that anything can happen. I am naturally suspicious when I see the crowd going all in the same direction because many times, things just don’t turn out the way you expect.
I would highly recommend you take some time to listen to the latest podcast by famed investor, Howard Marks, called “The Folly of Certainty”. It describes my thinking almost exactly when it comes to markets and predicting the future and I think it could help you if you’re wondering how you should be looking at things.
Don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions.