Insights

While the stock market narrative may sound familiar—U.S. equities navigating waves of volatility on the way to new highs—the environment certainly was not. We examine four catalysts that held sway over performance and what lies ahead for investors.

The longstanding inverse relationship between gold and real interest rates seems to have broken down, suggesting new forces—central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and portfolio diversification—have a larger role in driving demand for bullion.

Inflation remains calm in 2025, but tariff-related price hike concerns have kept the Fed sidelined. We look at the Fed’s commentary, the impact of market forces and political pressure on yields, and the probability of rate cuts before year’s end.

The U.S. government’s fiscal outlook can no longer be ignored.

Elevated gold prices should continue to support the TSX, while ongoing tariff uncertainties have us tilting toward perceived less risky categories within fixed income.

Three years ago, all Recession Scorecard indicators were rated expansionary green suggesting to us that the U.S. economy was on a firm footing with a long way to run. However, the picture has become decidedly more mixed.

With the centerpiece of U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic agenda winding its way through Congress, we examine what’s of key interest to markets and investors, before noting why the ultimate outcome of the bill is likely to look different.

Equity markets have bounced back smartly in Q2. Technical analysis suggests a move higher into early-to-mid-Q3, but investors should watch the U.S. dollar, and more importantly, 30-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.

The U.S. equity market has taken investors on a bumpy roller coaster ride, leaving some of us queasy. We discuss what drove the rally, lingering risks, and the market’s potential from here.