Insights

We’re increasingly of the view that a series of disruptions are masking a very real cyclical U.S. economic slowdown underneath the surface.

Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...

The S&P 500 has remained impressively resilient from a technical perspective. But we think some areas of the market are bottoming, supporting our belief that investors should consider rebalancing portfolios.

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy.

Collections from U.S. tariffs are surging. As legal uncertainty looms and costs gradually pass through, balancing resilient corporate fundamentals against policy risks remains crucial for portfolio positioning.

There was further evidence of a recovery is taking hold in many housing markets across Canada in August, but local price trends still varied considerably with declines continuing in affordability-challenged areas where inventory has piled up. Early reports...

With the Fed poised to lower overnight interest rates next week, we think investors may be disappointed with what lowering rates is likely to accomplish. We look at the potential asset-class implications if the Fed moves too aggressively.

After outpacing cautious expectations in the first half of the year, the global economy could face new challenges from trade policy uncertainty and inflation over the coming months.

Equity investors have long dreaded September. But we provide some context as to why stocks tend to sag in the month and explain why investors should keep their eye on the long-term ball when it comes to portfolio positioning.