It's that time again! Generally I circle back to this topic once every year, to highlight some of the complications associated with being a successful investor. Even that statement in and of itself, is complicated. What does it actually mean to be a successful investor? Is it experiencing a favorable outcome, or is it a certain return hurdle? Perhaps a discussion for another day. In the meantime, let's uncover a few investor biases, and perhaps this will serve as an exercise in self recognition or understanding.
- loss aversion - this occurs when an investor feels more pains in a loss, than they do reward from an equivalent gain. The gain could even be outweighed by the loss, but the focus remains on " how did I make that mistake?"
- confirmation bias - when an individual seeks out information to support their viewpoint or decision, as opposed to seeking out data that may contradict. This is also prevalent in politics, and even restaurant decisions.
- overconfidence bias - pick on good stock and now you are an investor extraordinaire. Successful in business, so the real estate market should be a breeze. Overconfidence is limiting in the least, and dangerous at its worst. Specific to investing, look for sustainable, repeatable, and scaleable process.
- Hindsight - should have seen that one coming huh? This is one of my favourites, because I hear talking heads on business shows repeating this over and over again. I knew this was going to happen. The fact is, there are instances where factors seen in the past can provide indicators on a range of outcomes to expect, but especially with investing......specific outcomes are far from guaranteed. Nobody I know has a working crystal ball
- Recency bias - very powerful, and relatable to today specifically. A small number of US based technology companies provided monster returns in 2023. For example
- AAPL provided a monster 50% return in 2023. Can you remember what did in 2022?
- GOOG provided a whopping 60% return in 2023.....in 2022 it was down 40%
There are a number of other investor biases to watch out for, but start with this short list and ask yourself.....do any of these sound like me? Be honest. It's a fun and eye opening exercise