We face regular questions about what expectations should be for the future. The purpose of going through this exercise is not to tell the future, but to prepare better for particular outcomes as they relate to objectives we set for ourselves.
One of the most effective tools for establishing expectations, is to analyze data from the past, highlight circumstances similar to current conditions, and review the range of outcomes experienced then. When looking at periods in the past (going back to 1956), we looked at periods when market performance had been strong in the first half of the year. More notably, we looked at times when the TSX enjoyed returns of 10-20% over the first six months. You can see the outcome matrix in the chart below. Armed with this data, you can review the options you were weighing for your portfolio, and decide what makes the most sense for you.