All time highs Pt III: But what about next year?

Nov 26, 2019 | Jeremy Goldfarb


It wasn't my intention to lean on the whole "all time high thing", but this is what people are talking about! So, part III, or the third installment of a topic I have hit over the past week or so.


So here we sit at all time highs, and on top of that, the S&P500 has run about 20% into and out of November now. We have already established what investors should consider when dealing with all time highs. We have also established what timing the market does for you (click here for a refresher from a post back on April 15). But really.....what should we expect after such a GREAT YEAR!!


My pals at RBC Global Asset management provided some insight on that today that I thought I would share with you.

  • Since 1950, the S&P500 has had gains comparable to this year, at this point once every 4 years. More than you'd think right? But wait, there's more (like a late night commercial --- Vince?)
  • In 18 separate instances (calendar years) where the market was up 20% at this point in the year, the S&P500 managed to close the year out on a good note, AND outperform on the following one and three year periods
  • when the S&P500 has been up 20% at this point, the broader US market has gone on to post positive 1 year returns 83% of the time, and positive 3 year returns 100% of the time

Don't time, but don't be complacent either though. Volatility is still a thing in spite of the VIX being basically dormant for the past while. It's interesting food for thought though.