A month in the books

Jul 29, 2019 | Jeremy Goldfarb


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After a June to forget (basically a whole Spring to forget), we have had really good weather to enjoy some summer time during the month of July. A nice change if you ask me. Not a whole lot of posting of late, but that will change as we ramp back up towards "busy", a natural annual progression once September rolls around. I am not trying to end anyone's summer anytime soon, so please don't take things that way. Over the course of the last month, I took some time with my family, and I hope you get to do the same. The featured image is a grab from a place called Highbourne Cay (pronounced "key") in Exuma, Bahamas. I would highly recommend it.

 

For the markets, it has really been much of the same of late. No shortage of news, but the melt up has gradually continued. I would like to point out a few things though.

 

1- while the indexes are reaching highs, take a good look at what is causing the strength. Is it broad based? Are all boats lifting.

2- if the markets are all high, are there any deals left? Energy has been lagging the total index by almost 9%. We are having middle eastern conflict bubbles and hurricane season is coming......

3- There are still unsettled issues including (a) what is the fed going to be doing longer term and (b) where is this US/China thing going

 

Here is what I believe. The economy is solid, but there are some holes to think about. There always are. Fundamentally though, the consumer is healthy, and balances sheets are stable in general. I don't think that a euphoric state has been reached yet, and the recent climb has occurred slowly up a very steep wall of worry. So there should be a little bit of room left to run......

 

Enjoy August as much as you did July!

 

Jeremy