Say what you will about the Liberal Party, one can’t argue that Mark Carney’s rapid ascent to becoming our elected prime minister, was nothing short of remarkable. Prior to Trudeau stepping down in March, the Conservatives were so far ahead in the polls that the likelihood of a turnaround seemed impossible. Similarly, this past weekend in Australia, the incumbent Labor government (akin to our Liberal Party), won re-election in a landslide victory. The opposition Liberal–National Coalition (Conservative), suffered a large swing against it - exceeding almost all published opinion polling.
Thus far in 2025, the Canadian stock market (S&P/TSX) is outperforming (+1.4% ytd) it’s US counterpart (S&P500: -4.63% ytd), driven by a combination of economic resilience, sector composition and perhaps most importantly, investor sentiment.
Welcome to the era of the “Trump Effect” - the political phenomenon where one man’s self-serving chaos is triggering unexpected surges in national pride, not just here, but also in other parts of the world. Here at home, I don’t think we’ve seen anything like this since the 1972 Summit hockey series between Canada and the Soviet Union. Interestingly, there are parallels between then and now.
In the years following World War II, tensions between the Soviet Union and Western countries intensified, leading to the Cold War. The conflict manifested not only in politics and military rivalry but also in sports, where international competitions became proxy battles between rival ideologies. Still touted as the most important Canadian sporting event ever, we went into the final game 8, tied. With only 34 seconds left, Paul Henderson scored the winning goal, securing the series win for Canada. It truly was a moment of national catharsis.
We had already witnessed during Trump’s first term, his casually referring to Canada as a “security threat”, the renegotiation of NAFTA and the imposition of tariffs on aluminum. Now with his daily delusions more magnified than ever, our response to his bombastic rhetoric has been to emerge from the mayhem stronger and strategically more self-interested. Even prior to his rants about making us the 51st state, Canada had already begun trade expansion with Europe, the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America. These ties are further strengthening in real-time, as the rest of the world begins to align against the “America First” agenda.
Yes, the “Trump Effect” has been a dumpster fire for democratic norms and the rule of law, but for Canada it has also been something else – clarifying.
Canada, the once humble sidekick of North America, has blossomed like a cherry tree in spring. Trump’s erratic threats have very quickly become the catalyst for countless Canadians to wake up and realize what everyone eventually understands in a toxic relationship – maybe it’s time to stop depending on that partner who constantly lies, cheats and makes empty promises.
So, here’s to the Trump Effect – where we’re not just going through a political shift but a national rebrand. We’re no longer content to be merely the polite neighbour. Canada now appears to be the sensible adult at the G7 dinner table and I for one am here for it!
Enjoy the lovely days of May ahead.
Libby
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