During the RRSP and TFSA contribution period, a friend of mine asked me where to invest the money he contributed.  After giving him my usual recommendation, which has been the same for 2 years, I just had to ask him how come he hasn't invested in that company yet…

 

"I'm waiting for the crash Elie, I feel it's coming”, he replied.

 

Our conversation reminded me of Noah’s Ark. This narrative always made me laugh because it is a bit crazy. Throughout the story, there is no allusion to the neighbors of the latter, probably disturbed by the vision of the boat in the middle of the desert or the constant construction noise. Nor do they have the wood and nails merchant who must have been particularly happy with these sales!

 

For 120 years people saw and questioned this dear Noah about his project (and fitness!) who was candid about the purpose of the Ark. What amazes me the most in the story is that no one saw fit to make a boat just in case.

 

I'm willing to bet the village was looking at the sun after the rain and thinking of Noah and his Ark. Some must have panicked at the sight of dark clouds and others probably didn’t think anything of it. And this aspect brings forward an element in the investment world.

 

Historically, the stock market has dropped by 10% every 24 months and 20% every 5 years. This is without a recession occurring, simply the vagaries of the market. Investors need to remember this: the stock market will go down. No energy should be applied to the “when”, since it is a certainty.

 

Many analysts and economists spend their time researching and estimating the chances of the flood coming. However, there is no reward for forecasting the weather correctly. The reward comes only to those who built the Ark, even if like Noah, they are 120 years ahead.