Insights

We’re increasingly of the view that a series of disruptions are masking a very real cyclical U.S. economic slowdown underneath the surface.

Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...

We outline some of the proposed federal budget measures, and the effect they may have on Canadians and their families.

Despite a second consecutive rate cut, a hawkish turn from the Fed supports our view that it’s on hold until at least 2026. While that may have previously caused market turbulence, investors seem content with the idea the Fed has already done enough.

The Bank of Canada delivered an expected 25 basis point rate cut today, lowering the overnight rate to 2.25%—the bottom of the neutral range that would not add to or subtract from inflation pressures over time. Beyond the rate cut itself, two themes stood...

A new playbook for balancing bigger government with fiscal health We believe the context and composition of government spending matter as much as the quantum. Cyclically, our outlook has Canada avoiding a recession from the current set of tariffs, but...

The S&P 500 has remained impressively resilient from a technical perspective. But we think some areas of the market are bottoming, supporting our belief that investors should consider rebalancing portfolios.

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy.

AI is seldom out of the headlines in 2025, with defining developments coming one after another. We look at where AI is today and explain how its promise is matched against technological, economic, and geopolitical challenges.