US Economics: Recovery path tracker

Jul 21, 2020 | Cairy Holtby


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Covid-19 Testing averaged a new high of nearly 780,000/day in the latest week – up more than 100,000/day from one week ago. Meanwhile, the positivity rate looks increasingly to be plateauing on a nationwide basis. It has now been in a tight range bet

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Testing averaged a new high of nearly 780,000/day in the latest week – up more than 100,000/day from one
week ago. Meanwhile, the positivity rate looks increasingly to be plateauing on a nationwide basis. It has now
been in a tight range between 8.2-8.7% over the last 11 days. Thus, nationwide, the continued ramp up in testing
explains all of the uptick in cases more recently as the hit rate has flattened out. Critically, the death rate
continues to decline. Daily average deaths relative to infections from 2 weeks earlier are now sitting at 1.58% (7-
day average) from 3.75% on July 1st and 4.33% on June 1st. The news on therapeutics and vaccines continues to
look positive as well. Small pharma company, Synairgen, reported “a 79% lower risk of developing severe forms of
the disease compared to placebo” according to Reuters. And the Covid-19 vaccine joint effort by AstraZeneca and
the University of Oxford showed promising results. Indeed, the head of Oxford’s Jenner Institute, said they are
“seeing very good immune responses, not just on neutralizing antibodies but of T-cells as well.” Declining death
rates, improved therapeutics, and continued headway on vaccines should continue to compress the left tail
economic risks from the virus.