With the White House vowing an imminent response to the latest chemical weapons attack in
Syria, a critical concern is whether the war spreads beyond the country’s geographic
boundaries and ignites a wider regional conflagration, adding a possible ‘fear premium’ to oil.
At the same time, the other proxy war raging in Yemen presents a clear risk to regional energy
supplies given the brazen Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. Moreover, in our view the
intensification of these proxy fights further dims any hope of the White House remaining in
the Iranian nuclear deal when the sanctions waivers once again come up for renewal.