Recent Posts

Can Europe meet the moment?

Feb 13, 2026 | Frédérique Carrier

The euro area defied expectations in 2025, delivering growth amid a challenging environment. Yet beneath this resilience, Europe has started to redraw its economic and strategic maps.

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Supply surge keeps Canadian house prices on a downtrend

Feb 12, 2026 | Rachel Battaglia

Supply-demand conditions weakened further in most large Canadian markets as January unfolded. Potential buyers remained cautious despite...

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Trump Warshes his hands of Powell

Feb 06, 2026 | Thomas Garretson, CFA

President Donald Trump’s campaign to get rid of Fed Chair Jerome Powell culminated in the most likely outcome—simply nominating a replacement. With Kevin Warsh on track to be the next chair, we look at the potential economic and market impacts.

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High stakes, narrow margins: Canada’s federal budget bets on investment-led growth

 November 05, 2025 |Cynthia Leach, Robert Hogue, and Salim Zanzana
Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...
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Canadian federal budget preview

 October 27, 2025 |Cynthia Leach
A new playbook for balancing bigger government with fiscal health We believe the context and composition of government spending matter as much as the quantum. Cyclically, our outlook has Canada avoiding a recession from the current set of tariffs, but...
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Are U.S. tariffs accomplishing their goals?

 August 20, 2025 |Claire Fan

The trade war remains in its early stages, with U.S. tariff revenues trailing behind announcements into the summer. Nevertheless, import tariffs collected as a share of U.S. imports have already risen to their highest level since the 1940s.

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Fall Economic Statement 2024: Canada boosts investment appeal and the deficit deepens

Fall Economic Statement 2024: Canada boosts investment appeal and the deficit deepens

 December 18, 2024 |Rachel Battaglia, Robert Hogue and Cynthia Leach
Given the political uncertainty facing Canada, the fate of many of the measures announced in the 2024 Fall Economic Statement is highly uncertain. However, the fiscal update still serves as a snapshot of where the economy is headed and how upcoming challenges...
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