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High stakes, narrow margins: Canada’s federal budget bets on investment-led growth

 November 05, 2025 |Cynthia Leach, Robert Hogue, and Salim Zanzana
Overall, the story of Budget 2025 is as expected. There is big new spending and deficits that would be even larger without review savings. Buffers are slim against the two fiscal anchors of a balanced operating budget by 2028-29, and a declining deficit-to-GDP...
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Canadian federal budget preview

 October 27, 2025 |Cynthia Leach
A new playbook for balancing bigger government with fiscal health We believe the context and composition of government spending matter as much as the quantum. Cyclically, our outlook has Canada avoiding a recession from the current set of tariffs, but...
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Bi-Weekly Client Letter - October 3, 2025

 October 03, 2025 |Beth Arseneau
The U.S. federal government began a partial shutdown this week. While notable, the impact of these shutdowns on the economy and financial markets have typically been modest. Political developments such as these often generate headlines and can induce...
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Bi-Weekly Client Letter - September 19, 2025

 September 19, 2025 |Beth Arseneau
Following recent signs of weakening labour market conditions in Canada and the U.S., central banks in both countries have decided to reduce their benchmark interest rates, resuming monetary easing cycles that had been on hold amidst uncertainty in the...
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Are U.S. tariffs accomplishing their goals?

 August 20, 2025 |Claire Fan

The trade war remains in its early stages, with U.S. tariff revenues trailing behind announcements into the summer. Nevertheless, import tariffs collected as a share of U.S. imports have already risen to their highest level since the 1940s.

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Bi-Weekly Client Letter - April 17, 2025

 April 17, 2025 |Beth Arseneau
What a difference a few weeks, or even days, makes. In a major pivot, the U.S. administration went from proposing sweeping tariffs across many of its trading partners to then extending a three-month reprieve for all countries. The exception is China,...
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Bi-Weekly Client Letter - April 8, 2025

 April 08, 2025 |Beth Arseneau
Global equity markets fell more sharply this week following the revelation from the U.S. administration that its reciprocal tariffs will be much broader and larger than most investors expected. The “Liberation Day” announcement raised the spectre of a...
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Food Fight: China’s tariffs adds to exporters’ woes

 April 03, 2025 |Beth Arseneau
China retaliated with tariffs of its own on various Canadian agricultural exports in response to Ottawa’s tariffs last fall on Chinese electric vehicles and metals. The new tariffs mark an escalation in trade tensions between Canada and China, with the...
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U.S. reciprocal tariffs spare Canada/Mexico for now but trade risks remain

 April 03, 2025 |Beth Arseneau
The long-awaited U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced have been large and broad-based, but critically exempt Canada and Mexico (at least for now) through CUSMA/USMCA compliant trade. The announcement includes a baseline 10% minimum tariff rate for all countries...
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Global Insight Weekly - March 28, 2025

 March 28, 2025 |Beth Arseneau
I'm pleased to share RBC Wealth Management's latest investment newsletter. US equities: Signs of a cycle peak, with a Q2 reprieve likely The first quarter of 2025 was an eventful one for equity investors, marked by volatility and a market correction....
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