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Five Things That Caught My Attention This Month
Winter is about embracing the cold. (investing isn’t that different)
A few observations – from markets, behaviour and everyday life – that stood out this month.
This Month:
- My outlook for the year ahead
- Relationships in an AI-driven world
- Gambling, speculation and overconfidence
- Helicopter parents and shifting priorities
- The return of protein as a mainstream trend
1. My Outlook for the Year Ahead
The mood into the year is noticeably a lot more positive – and paradoxically, that alone warrants caution.
Markets typically climb a wall of worry. Over the past year, concerns around tariffs, geopolitics, housing affordability and debt sustainability dominated the narrative. As many of these risks have faded from daily headlines, optimism has increased – raising the bar for future returns.
Continued market strength from here likely requires
- Further rotation of capital from cash into equities, and
- Earnings growth that exceeds already-elevated expectations.
This does not suggest high odds of a sharp correction. It does suggest a narrower margin for error, particularly for investors with shorter time horizons.
While the consensus outlook remains constructive – supported by resilient earnings expectations and early-stage AI productivity gains – what gives me pause is less about direction and more about valuation, concentration and complacency following one of the strongest equity and credit runs on record.
The appropriate response isn’t to step aside. Its to remain invested with discipline – balancing participation with selectivity, managing concentration risks and ensuring portfolios can absorb uncertainty rather than depend on perfect outcomes.
2. The future still runs on relationships – even as AI advances
I attended a great even yesterday hosted by the UJA, which featured Jeff Rosenthal of Imperial Capital as a speaker. He highlighted the importance of human relationships in driving success going forward – particularly for young job seekers – and it reminded me of a recent article on the growth of client-facing advisors. (Full disclosure: I’m clearly biased here.)
The long predicted “robo revolution” in financial advice has not materialized as a replacement for human advisors. While technology provides useful services, commoditization has set in: basic portfolio allocation and ETF solutions are widely available and largely undifferentiated.
AI and digital tools are amplifiers; the why and when sill rely on human insight.
https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/the-war-is-over-human-advisors-won
3. Gambling on everything – when prediction meets speculation
The rise of activity once confined to casinos is now spreading into mainstream financial platforms. Prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts based on event outcomes – from sports results to macroeconomic indicators – have expanded rapidly and are attracting participation from platforms such as Robinhood and Draftkings.
This raises two key questions: 1) Will capital be drawn to short term betting that was previously invested in the stock market, 2) Will more access encourage more risk-taking akin to gambling rather than investing.
And on a related note, speculation and margin loans by retail investors are at all time highs.
4. Millennial Dads are spending just as much time with kids as Baby-Boomer Moms
It’s no surprise that parents today are spending more time with their kids – whether it's hockey (who has time for multi-sport athletes), experiences, or caution around neighbourhood safety. What caught my attention from this chart is the magnitude of the shift. This data predates COVID, suggesting the trend was already well underway.
5. The protein conversation is back – and more mainstream
Protein has re-entered the conversation but feels different than the early-2000 Atkins era. The focus today is less about dieting and more about longevity, metabolic health and everyday nutrition. It also appears to be paired with a broader shift towards strength training after years of emphasis on cardio.
When companies like Chipotle are moving aggressively into high-protein offerings, it’s a signal the trend has moved beyond the niche. Who wants a cup of chicken – or, as it's now branded, a $10 protein snack?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/18/chipotle-high-protein-snack-meat-cup.html
Closing Thoughts
Today’s conditions reward quality, liquidity, disciplined duration, and thoughtful tax planning. They penalize overstretching for yield, illiquidity, and relying on optimism in late-cycle credit conditions.
As always, I’m here to ensure your portfolio reflects these realities and remains aligned with your goals
Ari Black, CFA, HBA | Investment Advisor
If you ever want an objective second opinion, not a sales pitch, I’m always happy to help where appropriate