Publications

The U.S. central bank wields a powerful hammer with its ability to move interest rates. Despite its strength, though, we think the central bank is poorly suited to address key concerns arising from high oil prices and the rollout of AI.

In what follows, we outline a range of scenarios and how we’re thinking about the current oil price shock. 1. Higher oil will drive up inflation but the magnitude depends on the persistence of the shock Headline inflation has now exceeded 2% for nearly...

With the Middle East gripped in an acute crisis, it’s worth examining how prior military conflicts and significant geopolitical events impacted the U.S. stock market—and what history suggests for investors today.

While valuations remain a headwind, U.S. equity markets remain above key technical support levels with potential for another round of sector rotation developing heading into Q2.

After a year of uncertainty, tariff rates have stabilized at lower levels than feared—and become a significant U.S. government revenue source. We assess the tariff landscape ahead of the Supreme Court’s important ruling.

The euro area defied expectations in 2025, delivering growth amid a challenging environment. Yet beneath this resilience, Europe has started to redraw its economic and strategic maps.

Supply-demand conditions weakened further in most large Canadian markets as January unfolded. Potential buyers remained cautious despite elevated inventory giving them the upper hand. Severe winter weather likely contributed to the slowdown, with significant...

President Donald Trump’s campaign to get rid of Fed Chair Jerome Powell culminated in the most likely outcome—simply nominating a replacement. With Kevin Warsh on track to be the next chair, we look at the potential economic and market impacts.

Global and domestic headlines have put the focus squarely on U.S. sovereign assets. We look at what steps investors should take in this time of shifting economic messages.