DIARY OF A PORTFOLIO MANAGER

October 10th, 2025

HOPE THAT YOU HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING!

Good afternoon,

I hope that you have a wonderful weekend and do all of the things that you want to do. Appropriate to say thanks for your trust and confidence.

What have I been looking at this week? To start, our latest Global Insight Weekly is out and includes a recession scorecard update. Some of you ask about this so I felt it timely to share.

What is the U.S. Recession Scorecard? Essentially, it is RBC’s view on 7 different economic indicators and whether or not they point to expansion or contraction in the economy.

Here are the highlights.

U.S. Recession Scorecard: Stuck … with reduced visibility

The scorecard indicators remain mixed, including a shift in the yield curve indicator. The government shutdown has limited employment data, confirming a cautious investment approach is needed, as ongoing policy and trade shifts affect the economy.

Regional developments: Canada’s Department of Finance announced a series of reporting changes this week aimed at “modernizing the budget cycle”; Gold tops US$4,000 for the first time; French political turmoil reappears; New leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party sparks market optimism. This was also interesting The Daily — Labour Force Survey, August 2025.

If the turkey hasn’t put you to sleep, perhaps this will: Global Insight Weekly.

Should you have any questions, feel free to reach out.