DIARY OF A PORTFOLIO MANAGER

March 22, 2024

“They say it’s your birthday
We’re gonna have a good time
I’m glad it’s your birthday
Happy birthday to you”

Birthday – The Beatles

Good day,

Today is Jodie’s (my oldest daughter) 18th birthday. We joked that she’d want to head across the River to have a legal drink but she has zero interest in that. Ordering in some sushi tonight and having friends over this weekend top her list. To bring further context to the Beatles quote, in the not too recent past, she was also a Beatles fan. Not sure if she still is a fan or not but definitely has an old soul. A further aside, “McCartney 3,2,1” on Disney Plus is a must see for any music fan.

RECENT RALLY

Perhaps Jodie asked for the markets to be at all time highs as a birthday gift and she got it (she should be tapping into her RESP soon). Global equities have continued to perform well as of late. More noteworthy has been the breadth of the rally, with a variety of sectors, and not just technology, enjoying significant gains. As a result, markets outside the U.S. have also performed better, with Canada, recently outperforming the U.S. This broadening is a healthy sign as it suggests growing confidence in the investment outlook and portfolio performance that may be less reliant on a narrow part of the market. My attention of last has been on the anticipation of interest rate cuts in North America, despite the diverging paths of the Canadian and U.S. economies.

RECESSION? WHAT RECESSION?

Canada has thus far avoided a recession. Its most recent real gross domestic product (GDP) figure was around 1% in the last quarter of 2023. But this modest growth masks some underlying economic weakness. Canadian real GDP per-capita, which accounts for the country’s strong population growth, has been in decline for over a year now. Weak consumer spending, business investment, and lower job growth have slowed the economy, partially offset by strong exports.

Recent U.S. economic data has painted a different story, generally exceeding projections. In February, U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.2%, with the per capita rate showing similar strength. At the same time, the U.S. labor market has remained relatively tight, which continues to support consumer spending. Though manufacturing sector activity had been on a downtrend from pandemic era peaks, it has picked up in recent months.

INFLATION

The economic divergence in Canada relative to the U.S. has also been on display in recent inflation readings. Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) report for February, released over the past week, revealed lower than expected inflation for the second month in a row. There was a broad easing in price pressures, with the exception being shelter related costs including rents, mortgage interest, and the expenses tied to owning a home. In contrast, the U.S. has witnessed a modest reacceleration in inflation over the last two months, slightly exceeding expectations.

RATE CUTS

Despite these differences, both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have telegraphed the potential for rate cuts in 2024. Policymakers at the Bank of Canada recently indicated that cuts could be appropriate this year if the economy evolves in-line with current forecasts. The case for lower interest rates in Canada has become more convincing as recent economic data point towards moderating inflation. On the other hand, the argument for rate cuts seems less compelling in the U.S., given the economic strength that has been maintained amid higher rates. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated this past week that the Fed believes it may be appropriate to cut interest rates at some point this year. In response to questions on the recent reacceleration in inflation, Powell noted that inflation continues to trend lower despite the recent “bumps in the road”. Markets are currently expecting three cuts this year in both Canada and the U.S., with the first one occurring as early as June.

The key takeaway is that rate cuts are a real possibility in both Canada and the U.S., even if the rationale and extent of these policy moves might be debated based on the current state of the two economies. Historically speaking, an environment characterized by declining interest rates tends to be supportive for investment returns. The strong equity market performance in recent months may reflect some of this optimism, though our investment strategy group would not be surprised to see markets continue to push higher, at least until some future developments prompt a reassessment of the outlook for inflation, growth, and interest rates.

Should you have any questions, please feel free to reach out.

Have yourself a great weekend,