The bad news: COVID-19’s brutal toll on provincial economies is worse than we previously anticipated. The provinces are expected to contract between 4.8% and 11.2% in 2020—by far the deepest recessions we’ve ever seen. The good news is that we're heading into the recovery phase. Barring any setbacks, the worst is behind us. We'll generally see a slow start, followed by a meaningful rebound in activity over the second half of the year continuing into 2021 – with each province going at its own pace.