In what follows, we outline a range of scenarios and how we’re thinking about the current oil price shock. 1. Higher oil will drive up inflation but the magnitude depends on the persistence of the shock Headline inflation has now exceeded 2% for nearly...
The U.S. central bank wields a powerful hammer with its ability to move interest rates. Despite its strength, though, we think the central bank is poorly suited to address key concerns arising from high oil prices and the rollout of AI.
