Insights

Canada is back at 2% inflation, but it’s too soon to pop the champagne. What’s driving prices now looks very different from before the pandemic.

After a first interest rate cut in June, the Bank of Canada (BoC) again lowered its key overnight rate by 25 basis points at its meeting Wednesday, to 4.5%. The move was in line with market and our own expectations ahead of the announcement.

The latest Business Outlook Survey largely confirmed further normalizing in a few key areas that the central bank has deemed critical to future inflation trends.

Proof point: The timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada will be determined by domestic economic and inflation conditions and not the gap in monetary policy with the U.S. Federal Reserve or the value of the Canadian dollar....

Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty are driving inflation risks. We look at the potential role of fixed income in portfolio positioning.