Below is a summary of some of the relevant news items from the Capital Markets and the Economy from the past week extracted from RBC Global Insights and FactSet Research.

You can catch up on the past four weeks’ Weekly Update in the link to my Blog.

Read my latest Smart Investor newsletter on my website. The Q4 2025 edition covers Market Review up to Q3 of 2025, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom and gold’s surge. Shiuman’s Corner is a about my cycling adventures for fund raising.

** This will be the final edition of Shiuman’s Weekly Update for 2025. I hope you have enjoyed reading it this year. I look forward to keeping you informed in 2026. In the meantime, you can read the “Global Insight 2026 Outlook” from RBC Wealth Management here. Have a great holiday!

Markets

Market scorecard as of close on Friday December 12, 2025.

Country	Equity Indices	Level	1 week	YTD
Canada	S&P/TSX Composite	31,527	0.7%	27.5%
U.S.	S&P 500	6,827	-0.6%	16.1%
U.S.	NASDAQ	23,195	-1.6%	20.1%
Europe/Asia	MSCI EAFE	2,856	0.3%	26.3%

Source: FactSet

• TSX finished lower on Friday, off worst levels. Canadian equities finished the week up 0.7%.
• US equities finished lower in Friday trading. S&P, Nasdaq logged declines for the week.
• After three successive years of above-average market appreciation, delivering a fourth will be a tall order but not entirely out of the question. Whether equity market returns are “merely” positive or above average, either outcome will depend on the major economies, especially the U.S., avoiding recession and on the current consensus forecasts for GDP, earnings growth, inflation, and interest rates being in the right “ballpark.”
• We can see a plausible path to another year of positive gains for most major stock markets – but likely at a more sober pace. Slower earnings growth is the more likely outcome outside of the United States. GDP growth everywhere needs to shift into a higher gear than is currently embodied in consensus forecasts to lift the prospects for equity market performance beyond the “merely” positive toward “above average.”
• RBC Wealth Management has launched the Global Insight 2026 Outlook. Looking ahead to the next year is a necessary exercise for investors, but it’s even more useful to focus on investment themes that can endure for years or even decades. This special 2026 Outlook brings unique perspectives on the near- and long-term market opportunities.
• • You can enjoy the complete report in PDF format here: 2026 Outlook

ECONOMY

Canada

• The Bank of Canada delivered a well-telegraphed, widely-expected hold on Wednesday, keeping the overnight rate at 2.25%—the bottom of the neutral range and where we expect it will remain through the end of 2026. With recent data suggesting the economy has weathered U.S. tariffs better than anticipated, the BoC sees the current policy rate level as appropriate for the economy.
• Canada’s labour market strengthened. The Canadian economy gained 54,000 jobs in November, building on the cumulative 127,000 increase over September and October. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% from 6.9% in October, the largest single-month decline since February 2022 and the lowest rate in 16 months.
•  

U.S.

• Small-business optimism ticked higher in November. According to the NFIB Small Business Survey, small firms (which make up roughly half of private-sector employment in the U.S.) reported a modest improvement in sentiment.
• As was widely expected, the Fed delivered its third consecutive rate cut to close out 2025, while remaining noncommittal on what investors might expect into 2026. With the Fed on hold, though biased toward another cut, the 2-year Treasury yield is likely to remain around 3.5 percent. But the 10-year yield, which is more sensitive to economic growth and inflation, likely faces further upside risk from a current level around 4.10 percent.

           

• The U.S. has reopened the door for advanced AI chip sales to China. The Trump administration’s decision last week to approve exports of NVIDIA’s H200 chips marks the first meaningful loosening of semiconductor controls since 2022, and reintroduces American compute into a market where it had been effectively shut out.

• Further Afield
• In France, the National Assembly voted to adopt the first part of the 2026 budget, dealing with social security spending. Reaching agreement on the 2026 budget has been highly contentious and has already toppled previous French governments. The government suspended the 2023 pension reform that raised the legal retirement age to 64 from 62, increased healthcare expenditures, and agreed to transfer some €4.5 billion to the social security budget from the state budget.
• Chinese exports rose 5.9% y/y in November, beating the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 4.0% growth and reversing October’s 1.1% decline. Growth was mainly driven by exports to non-U.S. markets. We think the November data highlights the resilience of Chinese exports, which have been on a post-pandemic uptrend. Driven by strong exports and subdued import growth, China’s trade surplus for the first 11 months of the year topped US$1 trillion for the first time in history.

NOTES ABOUT COMPANIES IN MODEL PORTFOLIO

• Costco Wholesale Corporation (Nasdaq: COST) announced Thursday its operating results for Q1 fiscal 2026, ended November 23, 2025. Net income for the quarter was $2,001 million, $4.50 per diluted share, compared to $1,798 million, $4.04 per diluted share, last year. Comparable sales were up 6.4%, whereas net sales were up 8.2%. Membership renewal rate stood at 89.7% worldwide.
• Dollarama Inc. (TSX: DOL) reported Thursday its financial results for the third quarter ended November 2, 2025. DOL has two reportable segments: Canada (which includes the contribution of the Corporation's equity-accounted investments in Latin America) and Australia since the completion of its acquisition of The Reject Shop Limited ("TRS") on July 21, 2025. In Canada, Comparable store sales increased by 6.0%, compared to 3.3% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Net earnings increased by 16.6% to $321.7 million, resulting in a 19.4% increase in diluted net earnings per common share to $1.17, compared to $0.98.
• Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) the builder of luxury homes, announced on Monday results for its fourth quarter ended October 31, 2025. Net income for full year fiscal 2025 was $1.35 billion and earnings per diluted share were $13.49, compared to net income of $1.57 billion and earnings of $15.01 per diluted share in FY 2024.

Feel free to contact me with any questions and/or to discuss investment ideas.

Regards,

Shiuman

 

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