Below is a summary of some of the relevant news items from the Capital Markets and the Economy from the past week extracted from RBC Global Insights and FactSet Research.
You can catch up on the past four weeks’ Weekly Update in the link to my Blog.
Read my latest Smart Investor newsletter on my website. The Q2 2025 edition covers Market Review for Q1 2025, the impact of tariffs on markets, and how to position your portfolio during a time of disruption. Shiuman’s Corner is about the art of retail in Japan.
Markets
Market scorecard as of close on Friday July 4, 2025.
| Country | Equity Indices | Level | 1 week | YTD |
| Canada | S&P/TSX Composite | 27,036 | 1.3% | 9.3% |
| U.S. | S&P 500 | 6,279 | 1.7% | 6.8% |
| U.S. | NASDAQ | 20,601 | 1.6% | 6.7% |
| Europe/Asia | MSCI EAFE | 2,655 | 0.0% | 17.4% |
Source: FactSet
- TSX finished flat on Friday, off best levels. Sectors mixed. Canadian equities finished the week up 1.3%, reaching all-time-high above 27,000.
- U.S. markets were closed for Fourth of July holiday on Friday. US equities were higher in Thursday trading as stocks ended near best levels. S&P and Nasdaq posted another record close, capped off healthy gains for the holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 closed up 1.7% for the week.
- An except from Trend & Cycle: The Long View by Robert Sluymer, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group (July 3, 2025) on the Canadian dollar.
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- The CADUSD has bounced back from an important support band at the 2016-2020 lows near 0.68 toward resistance in a band between 0.736-.0745 where we expect the CADUSD to stall and consolidate.
Economy
Canada
- The Canadian goods trade deficit narrowed in May after spiking to a record high in April. Exports had risen substantially earlier in the year as businesses stocked up on inventories, but plunged 11% in April when broad based U.S. tariffs kicked in before edging up 1.1% in May.
- The better news in the May data is reporting from the U.S. Census Bureau, shows that about 91% of Canadian exports to the U.S. crossed the border duty-free, consistent with the view that the exemption for CUSMA/USMCA-compliant trade from blanket U.S. tariffs imposed in March is working effectively.
U.S.
- Biggest focus on Friday was on “Big, Beautiful Bill”, which passed a vote in the House, and will move to Trump's desk in time for his long-preferred 4-Jul deadline. This comes after a lengthy debate and active behind-the-scenes whipping as several GOP holdouts voted "yes" on a procedural measure overnight to help House Speaker Johnson get enough votes to pass.
- Jobs data released in the U.S. on Friday morning highlighted a stronger-than-expected labour market south of the border. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147k jobs in June, more than 41k ahead of expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly ticked down by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%.
Further Afield
- China said it will offer subsidies to parents to boost childbirth rates to help stem a sharp demographic decline.
- Household spending rose 4.7% y/y in May, well above consensus 1.2%. However, growth was skewed by a 162.2% surge in auto purchases which alone contributed 2.97% to the headline. This was seen as a reflection of base effects after the automaker certification scandal depressed demand last year.
Feel free to contact me with any questions and/or to discuss investment ideas.
Regards,
Shiuman
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