Weekly Insights

May 06, 2019 | Ronald J. Wilcock


May 2, 2019 - Insights into the equity, fixed-income, currency and commodity markets from RBC Wealth Management.

What a great Sunday! A perfect afternoon for a nice walk, a game of disk (Frisbee) golf, and a Dairy Queen.

It has also been a quite a start to 2019 (after a dismal finish to 2018) for stock markets. Throughout this time you were reading headlines about a recession being imminent. Also during this time the RBC DS U.S. Economic Indicator Scorecard has been scoring; 5 out 6 Indicators as Expansion, 1 as Neutral, and 0 as Recessionary. Our analysts have believed and do believe, that there is No sign a recession imminent, and there is a low risk historically speaking of U.S. recession. Now the doom and gloom headlines appear to be subsiding and we are reading more about how strong and wonderful markets are in the media. The more you read about this, the more we wouldn’t be surprised to see a dip or pullback. In fact, our technical analysts thought there may have been one already. No worries at all though, we are prepared and have dry powder ready to make purchases should this happen. We would buy in, and then in our opinion, expect markets to move upward again, finishing the year positive. It is also possible that we have good geopolitics and markets break through their testing of new highs and continue to move up for a further period. On a short term basis, despite all the expert headlines, no one knows for sure what will happen. It is like our spring weather, sometimes we get some rain, some sun, and some surprises. Whatever comes, we have your portfolios well positioned. We expect that we are in a long term secular bull market, that there will be volatility, and that there is time and room to run before the next US recession arrives.


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