Corbin and Landon came home for the long weekend. There was a family event, some hiking, and some relaxing, all for an enjoyable weekend. Diane and I have been talking about going to see “Motown the Musical”. She was talking with some friends on the weekend and found out this coming weekend is the end of the run in Toronto. So, we now have tickets for the 4 of us for Sunday. It should be a great show.
This Past Week; While the S&P/TSX was up 1.1%, US stocks came back slightly (about -0.5%) last week from the great previous week. However, they were up more than that yesterday (the TSX was closed for the Canadian holiday) on news that China is making concessions to cool off the trade war.
Does it make sense to “Sell in May and go away”. You often hear this catchy rhyme and people advocating to sell investments to avoid negative summers and come back to the market in October, but is it true? The fact is that more than 70% of the time for the last 60 years the S&P500 has been positive during those months, with an average return of over 7%. Even including the 29% negative years the average is still a very positive contribution to investors’ portfolios. More recently, even with rising uncertainty, the markets still made significantly positive returns in the summer of 2016 and 2017. The clear take away is that this kind of all or nothing market timing can be very difficult, not to mention the emotional decision of when to “get back in”. You often see people who try to do this then hesitate on getting back in, and miss out on even more market upside. Other than smaller tactical allocation changes, time in the markets is the winner as opposed to trying to time the markets.
The Weekend/Weather; After a little cooler day today, the rest of the week should see temperatures moving up around 80F/25C. I hope you have a great, warm, sunny week.
Global Insight WEEKLY
May 17, 2018
Global Insight Monthly
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