Staying in Touch - October 2019 Global Monthly Insight - Impeachment, Canadian Election, Brexit & Fiscal Stimulus

October 03, 2019 | Rhonda Hymers


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Good afternoon,

I hope you are enjoying these lovely days of fall with the leaves turning to the beautiful colors of red, orange, and yellow. Along with the change of seasons we have experienced in the last week (stay warm Alberta!), the theme of change can be found in headlines around the world.

Students in over 150 countries staged demonstrations, school strikes, and rallies last week as part of the Fridays for Future movement; a call to action for governments around the globe to do more in fighting climate change.

In the United States, there was a change of course for the Democrats, who have now launched a formal impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. The impeachment process can be expected to last between several months and a few quarters. While the prospect of the removal of a president is newsworthy and politically impactful, history has shown little to no correlation between impeachment proceedings and stock market performance. We believe that economic conditions and corporate earnings will be the driving forces behind market performance as we look ahead.

For further perspective, please enjoy the October 2019 Global Insight and this week’s Macro Memo from Eric Lascelles. Eric’s comments cover the following topics: impeachment, updates on the Canadian election, Brexit, and fiscal stimulus.

Warm Regards,

Rhonda Hymers & Hymers Wealth Management Group


October 2019
Our chief economist, Eric Lascelles, shares his latest views on the global economy offering insight into today’s top economic issues.Some economic data over the last month has stabilized and positive economic surprises have increased. However, risks still point to a continued deceleration of global economic growth. A quarter of all global bonds currently have a negative yield. These negative rates may persist over the short to medium-term.

Face-to-face trade negotiations between the United States and China are scheduled for October. This raises expectations that a deal may happen.

Monetary stimulus is still providing economic support. The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut rates and is planning unlimited quantitative easing (QE) going forward. The Federal Reserve Board (Fed) cut rates in September.

Oil prices spiked during the month after the attack on Saudi processing facilities. High oil prices can be a drag on global growth, and production vulnerability is a growing concern.

Brexit risks have shrunk somewhat with the delay of the final decision.

The health of the U.S. consumer continues to improve: wage growth is decent, household leverage is no longer a constraint, interest rates remain low and the savings rate is high.


 

3rd Party Research

OCT 2, 2019

RBC GAM: #MacroMemo September 30-Oct 4  

Impeachment | Cdn Election | Fiscal Stimulus

 


 

GLOBAL INSIGHT

OCT 2, 2019

Global Insight Monthly - October 2019 

As central banks go deeper down the rabbit hole of negative rates, we look at how investors can navigate the upside down world of negative-yielding debt.


It is always the simple that produces the marvelous.
 - Amelia Barr -