Insights

Recession risks have risen slightly as labour markets in the U.S. and Canada have cooled. We’re not past the point of no return, but investors should evaluate defensive options in their portfolios.

Four unresolved issues related to the selloff stand to hold sway over stocks. More volatility is likely, and we favor a defensive tilt in equity portfolios, focusing on high-quality shares that can better withstand further economic deterioration.

The market pullback will take time to play out. Planning for an eventual shift to defense beats a “hope for the best” approach.

Pressure points in the economy and markets were triggered, sweeping up equities into a global selloff. We look at the market’s supporting factors and how investors should tilt equity exposure in portfolios.

As expected, the Fed held off on a rate cut this week. But as policymakers await more economic data before a likely September rate cut, the data may already be signaling the central bank is too late.

Relative comfort on inflation should allow the Fed to shift its focus to the goal of full employment. But with labor market data pointing in different directions, we sift through the mixed messages and the impact on the Fed’s rate cut plans.

After a first interest rate cut in June, the Bank of Canada (BoC) again lowered its key overnight rate by 25 basis points at its meeting Wednesday, to 4.5%. The move was in line with market and our own expectations ahead of the announcement.

While mega-cap tech stocks have dominated U.S. equity performance so far this year, recently the rest of the market has been trying to take the baton. We discuss the main factors needed to make a clean handoff.

The latest Business Outlook Survey largely confirmed further normalizing in a few key areas that the central bank has deemed critical to future inflation trends.