To my clients:
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It was an up week for North American stock markets with the Canadian TSX finishing up 1.0%; the U.S. Dow Jones Index finishing up 1.8%; and the U.S. S&P 500 finishing up 2.5%.
Economically, the main development this week was the release of a better than expected 2.9% growth rate in US GDP in the 4th quarter of 2022. This development has contributed to growing optimism (and rising stock prices) that perhaps a recession can be avoided in 2023. While a recession remains a probability in my mind, I’ll admit that the GDP report modestly reduces the likelihood. More importantly, if recession indeed occurs, this GDP report further supports my contention that the recession will be mild.
As clients and readers of these weekly updates will well know, I contend that the last 6 monthly inflation reports argue that inflation is already defeated. These 6 reports show that annualized inflation is less than 2.0% over that six-month stretch. This is below the Fed’s target. That said, we shall find out next week if the Fed agrees, as its next policy statement is scheduled for release on Wednesday. Almost certainly this will be a market moving event.
Finally, there was another trade executed in discretionary client portfolios this week with the sale of PPG Industries (in the U.S.) and the addition of Cargojet in Canada.
That’s it for this week. All the best,
Nick
Nick Scholte, CIM, FCSI
Senior Portfolio Manager
Scholte Wealth Management
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. │ Tel: 604.257.7569 │ Fax: 604.235.9950
3200-1055 West Georgia │ Vancouver, BC │ V6E 3P3
Toll Free: 1.844.665.9900 │Email: nick.scholte@rbc.com
Visit Our Website: www.nickscholte.ca
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