To my clients:
It was a mostly down week for North American stock markets with the Canadian TSX finishing down 0.7%; the U.S. Dow Jones Index finishing flat; and the U.S. S&P 500 finishing down 0.7%.
Short update this week in point form:
- Producer Price Index [(PPI) a measure of wholesale prices vs. retail prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)] was released on Tuesday and largely confirmed the slowdown in inflation seen in the CPI data last week. Most notably, “core” PPI came in at 0.0% increase month-over-month.
- Next month’s CPI data will be key to determining the interest rate path pursued by the Fed… if the data confirms the slowdown seen this month, we may well be approaching the end of this hiking cycle
- The RBC base case continues to see a mild-recession sometime in 2023…
- … BUT, it’s not a certainty. Interestingly, the economics team at Goldman Sachs just today updated their outlook and forecast that the U.S. will narrowly avoid recession next year.
- PORTFOLIO UPDATE: in the weeks ahead, I’ll be looking at client accounts for tax loss selling opportunities. I’ll not sell indiscriminately… there has to be a substantially similar investment opportunity for me to shift client funds into (i.e. bank to bank; auto parts manufacturer to auto parts manufacturer etc.). Where the investment thesis for ownership is very company specific, positions will not be sold even if at a loss.
That’s it for this week. All the best,
Nick
Nick Scholte, CIM, FCSI
Senior Portfolio Manager
Scholte Wealth Management
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. │ Tel: 604.257.7569 │ Fax: 604.235.9950
3200-1055 West Georgia │ Vancouver, BC │ V6E 3P3
Toll Free: 1.844.665.9900 │Email: nick.scholte@rbc.com
Visit Our Website: www.nickscholte.ca
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Any recommendations herein are for the exclusive use of clients of RBC Dominion Securities and Investment Advisor Nick Scholte. Any other direct or indirect recipient of this email should consult with his/her own licensed investment advisor prior to implementing any investment action he/she may be contemplating.