Gravitas: 10 Days

December 29, 2023 | Michael Newton


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The Newton Group Insights

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In a look back at 2023, data provider FactSet took a look at the biggest daily market moves in both directions. It’s an interesting rundown, with the biggest moves attributed to the performance of Mega cap tech stocks, a spring bout of banking turbulence and, of course, the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle.

The five best days were:

  • Jan. 6: +2.28%
  • Jan. 20: + 1.89%
  • April 27: +1.96%
  • Nov. 2: +1.89%
  • Nov. 14: +1.89%

And the five worst were:

  • Feb. 21: -2%
  • March 9: -1.85%
  • March 22 -1.65%
  • April 25: -1.58%
  • Sept. 21: -1.64%

The 10 top performing days for the S&P 500 contributed to an aggregate increase of 18.35% for the index, while the bottom 10 days accounted for a collective decrease of 16.2%. The S&P 500 was up 24% for the year ending less than 0.5% away from its Jan. 3, 2022, record finish. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 13% in 2023, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has soared 43%.

The market was calmer in 2023, with just 63 trading days posting a price swing of more than 1%, not far off the 10-year average of 59. Last year, with the S&P 500 sliding more than 19%, the index saw 122 trading days with moves up or down of more than 1%. Interestingly, the two biggest moves came early and within about six weeks of each other. The S&P 500 soared 2.28% on Jan. 6, after December jobs data offered signs that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes were effectively cooling the economy without triggering a recession. That didn’t mean interest rate-hike worries were vanquished. The S&P 500 fell 2% on Feb. 21, marking its worst performance of the year, largely due to apprehensions about further interest-rate increases.

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Portfolio Notes

(+) indicates a positive development, (-) indicates negative, and (~) indicates neutral

(+) Amazon (AMZN-US) is joining the advertising game with an ad tier for its Prime Video service, set to roll out on January 29. This was not a surprise as the company had signaled last fall it planned to do this. Its Prime Video service is lumped in with its Prime "free" delivery service, Amazon Music, pharmacy benefits and all the other services. The cost is just $2.99 per month if Prime members want to continue being ad-free. Amazon already has ads for its Thursday Night Football telecasts and that will not change. Overall, it's a smart move by Amazon to monetize its video streaming service. We also think this is good news for online ad platforms, like The Trade Desk (TTD-US) which we own. Owned in Core, ESG+ and US Portfolios.

(+) Microsoft (MSFT-US) Analysts at Wedbush raised their price target on the stock to $450 from $425 and maintained an Outperform on the shares. The analysts said artificial intelligence is “set to change the cloud growth trajectory” for Microsoft in the next few years. Microsoft, along with OpenAI, were sued Wednesday by New York Times, which alleged the companies used the newspaper’s content without its permission. Owned in Core, ESG+, Cash Flow and US Portfolios.

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I’m not going to invest in the stock market until…

 

1. I have clarity on economic data

2. The government is exactly like I want it

3. There's no conflicts in the World

4. The market feels "safe."

5. The news is calm

6. I can better understand why the market is moving like it is.

 

- Anonymous