The markets appear to be bottoming out, showing the first significant upward movement since late last week. While it's premature to definitively declare "the bottom is in," key indicators like breadth and momentum suggest a bottoming process is underway. Taking a long position seems prudent, potentially leading to upward movement extending into summer 2025 at minimum. Even if some consolidation occurs over the next week, this should be temporary and create an excellent risk-reward opportunity for US stocks. At this stage, downside risk appears limited, while the potential for a return to new all-time highs is increasing. Markets delivered their strongest "Fed Day" performance since 2022. Additionally, the combination of fearful sentiment indicators followed by an above-average rebound from last week's lows suggests a bullish outlook for equities in the coming months. Overall conclusion: The most profitable entry point typically occurs during late-stage emotional extremes—when positioning is maximally one-sided but before reversal catalysts become widely apparent. A long strategy now appears justified!

Should you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to reach out.

Portfolio Notes

(+) indicates a positive development, (-) indicates negative, and (~) indicates neutral

(-) Accenture (ACN-US) A modest beat by Accenture as slightly better than consensus revenues driven by the Managed Services business was offset by lower margins, while an increase at the low end of FY guidance marks an incremental positive. While we continue to believe Accenture could be a beneficiary of a cyclical rebound in overall tech spending, we have increasing concern that the rising capability and penetration of generative AI solutions could represent a headwind to the company’s revenues going forward as we believe that the automation that is enabled by generative AI could reduce the scope of work for Accenture or even eliminate the need for outsourcing in some areas. Owned in US Portfolio.

(+) Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-T) reported a beat on earnings and the shares surged. Inside store ‘same store sales’ were better than expected across the board, and while U.S. SSS were -0.1%, this was a big improvement over the last several quarters and the beat came despite some sizable weather-related headwinds in the quarter. It looks like ATD is seeing good traction in its food program initiative, which is driving the improvement in SSS. All-in, Couche-Tard continues to manage well against a backdrop of a challenged US consumer. On the bid for Seven&i holdings’ US stores, the Nikkei reported overnight that ATD signed an NDA in relation to a potential transaction, as both parties look to address antitrust issues arising from the deal. We are now in the 8th month of the Seven&i saga and this overhang is certainly frustrating for investors. Any clarity here, deal or no deal, would be a positive. ATD’s valuation has declined to 8.9x EBITDA, and we remain positive on the long-term story. Owned in Core and ESG+ Portfolios.

(+) Coinbase Global (COIN-US) Bernstein started coverage on the company with an Outperform rating as the analyst sees the crypto exchange riding tailwinds of the Trump administration's aspiration to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world. With more than $400B in assets and 10M active users, Coinbase remains the dominant platform holding 66% of U.S. market share. Overall, a strong bull market and rising U.S. onshore dominance are expected to more than offset any competitive market share and pricing pressure. Furthermore, the analyst expects Coinbase to grow non-trading revenue by 31% CAGR over 2024-2206, providing ballast to the cyclicality of trading revenue. In addition, rumors continue to swirl that they will be acquired by a major bank or trading firm. Owned in Core and Opportunity Portfolios.

(~) Ferrari (RACE-US) Ferraris are becoming increasingly popular among younger buyers, with the CEO of the luxury automaker revealing that 40% of new buyers are now under the age of 40. Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of CONVERGE LIVE in Singapore, Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna said Ferrari remains on track for the landmark unveiling of its first fully electric car on Oct. 9. The Maranello-based carmaker is well known for keeping a tight rein on the production of its cars, seeking to maintain the brand’s promise of exclusivity. Owned in Opportunity Portfolio.

(+) NEXTracker (NXT-US) is the solar trackers global leader and is well positioned to maintain its market leadership position, supported by its product portfolio, manufacturing footprint, strategic acquisitions, and healthy backlog. NXT's scale advantage has operational advantages that allow it to invest more heavily in R&D and its product portfolio is optimized to help customers save on cost. As a result, RBC is initiating coverage on NXT with an Outperform rating and a $55 price target implying 22% upside. NXT has built a track record for continued operational improvement and has made structural enhancements in the past few years that are resulting in more favorable cost absorption. The company's unique product design can reduce overall system cost, and its industry-leading software (TrueCapture) can be a significant value add for customers. Owned in ESG+ Portfolio.

(+) Nvidia (NVDA-US) hosted its annual GTC event on March 18 with a keynote by CEO Jensen Huang from the SAP Center in San Jose, Calif. The event featured workshops and training for developers and engineers, panels and discussions related to AI and robotics and exhibits from companies showing off how they're using Nvidia's products in the real world. For long-term tech participants, there was much in what was outlined and announced to gain probabilistic confidence that Nvidia remains a formidable and potentially unique long-term beneficiary of this AI Tech Wave. Nvidia is on an aggressive, multi-year AI GPU and Networking infrastructure roadmap ramp, that will be difficult for competitors to compete with in aggregate. Not just in terms of LLM AI, Small AI, and related areas on the software areas, but for the ‘physical AI’ markets that are developing around self-driving cars, robots of every type from industrial to humanoids, and for AI served locally at the edge on computers and mobile devices. Nvidia has an impressive set of operating systems, hardware and software ecosystems, and an ever-growing moat on those fronts. But the nearer term focus of the financial markets on ‘where’s the financial beef’ will likely be an ongoing headwind. Especially in these complex political times of a US/China ‘AI space race’, trading curbs, tariffs, and de-globalization in whatever form it ends up taking over the coming months. Owned in All Newton Group Portfolios.

Weekend Reading

Safe Retirement Withdrawal Rate Strategies in Canada How do I turn my nest egg into a usable stream of money that I can depend on and spend as I look forward to retirement? MILLION DOLLAR JOURNEY

Why Does Trump Hate Canada? He covets Canada’s natural resources and shipping lanes, and he’s smarting because of what he sees as disrespect from Ottawa. GREG VALLIERE

45 Abandoned Places Around the World That You Can Visit It’s okay to be awed and creeped out at the same time. CONDE NAST

The big sort Incrementally, slowly then all at once, we’ve multiplied the sorting and directory building of our world. We didn’t notice it happening, but we’ve sorted the people, the ideas, the media, the culture, healthcare, even which lake to go fishing on. Serendipity used to be normal, now it’s rare. SETH'S BLOG

30 Ways to Use AI to Make Life Better and Easier ART OF MANLINESS

The Five Oldest Businesses in the World Are All Japanese The five oldest continuously operating businesses in the world all hail from the Land of the Rising Sun, with histories stretching back over 1,300 years. MOSS & FOG

The hardest working font in Manhattan It's about a peculiar set of letters and numbers called Gorton which was developed in the 1950s by a company in Wisconsin for engraving, and ended up getting used for signs, on typewriters and other machines all around the world. ARESLUNA

Travel reinvented: Booking.com’s 2025 Travel Predictions From red-eye flights to men-only wellness retreats. BOOKINGdotCOM

2024–25 with Prime Minister Trudeau, in photos ADAM SCOTTI

Diversions

The World Will Tremble. Based on a chilling true story. (Theaters)

The Alto Knights De Niro reunites with Goodfellas and Casino screenwriter Nicholas Pileggi in gangster drama. (Theatres)

When No One Sees Us Spanish crime drama. Eight episodes. (Max)