Bloomberg estimated that Wall Street published 650 outlooks for 2024. I will keep this week's note simple: ignore them all. Funny how many investors think something magical happens as the calendar turns. As Morgan Housel quipped, "Read last year's forecasts before you take next year's too seriously." As you can see below, one chart summarizes the 2025 forecasts from the big investment firms. The other shows the 2024 track record. The reality is that we can’t control outcomes. It is always healthy to take a step back from the market noise. Making a periodic review of your investment framework and the outlook for economies and markets is a good discipline. It is also a good discipline to collect the thoughts of others in one place and process some semblance of an outlook. But do not count them as gospel. The most we can do is influence the probability of certain outcomes through the management of risks, and investing based on probabilities, rather than possibilities, which is important to capital preservation and investment success over time. I am looking forward to 2025. Happy New Year.

Should you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to reach out.

Portfolio Notes

(+) indicates a positive development, (-) indicates negative, and (~) indicates neutral

(+) Netflix (NFLX-US) set new streaming records with the two NFL games it aired on Christmas Day as it deepens its investment in live sports. The Kansas City Chiefs’ victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers averaged 24.1 million viewers, while an average of 24.3 million people watched the Baltimore Ravens defeat the Houston Texans, with the majority of the audience coming via Netflix. The peak figures were even higher, with U.S. viewership for the Ravens-Texans game peaking during the Beyoncé performance at halftime at over 27 million viewers, according to Nielsen. Netflix also avoided the technical issues that hampered many subscribers from watching its previous Jake Paul-Mike Tyson boxing fight, an event that attracted 60 million households. With Netflix shares having nearly doubled in 2024, it is under pressure to show live sports can pay off in advertising revenue. The next test comes in January, when it starts carrying the weekly show “WWE Raw” live on its platform as part of its 10-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings’ World Wrestling Entertainment brand. Owned in Core and ESG+ Portfolios.

 

Weekend Reading

11 Most Exclusive Private Clubs in the World Membership clubs might be seemingly popping up everywhere today, but they originated back in 18th-century Britain as sought-after spaces where aristocrats, politicians, and intellectuals gathered to discuss ideas, socialize, and conduct business. MENS JOURNAL

The Ugly Truth About Spotify is Finally Revealed A year-long investigation by an indie journalist is a call to action. HONEST BROKER

The Great French Mustache Strike of 1907 Parisian waiters had to fight for the right to manly whiskers. ATLAS OBSCURA

Taylor Sheridan's Extreme Productivity The prolific mind behind "Sicario" and "Yellowstone" only started his writing career at 40. The realest deadlines (a young family, a $350m ranch) have pushed him to grind at an unbelievable pace. TRUNG PHAN

30 Best Things to Do in Toronto Always interesting to read a Toronto feature from a US-based publication. CONDE NAST TRAVELER

Diversions

"Parthenope” An exquisite treatise on cinematic beauty on missed youth. Gary Oldman. IMBD

"Small Things Like These" Cillian Murphy discovers startling secrets kept by the convent in his town, along with some shocking truths of his own. ROTTEN TOMATOES

Social Media Watch

Nick Bostrom says achieving general intelligence in AI will lead to "full unemployment" as it becomes difficult to find tasks at which humans would still be helpful Post on X by Tsarathustra

"Sometimes I forget words now. I'm so used to having ChatGPT complete my thoughts that when it's not there, my brain feels... slower." Post on X by Greg Isenberg

It's dangerous now to trust your doctor and NOT consult an AI model. Here are some actual tasks. Post on X by Deedy

Raoul Pal says we are witnessing a coup d’etat of the entire political system by the ‘technology accelerationists’ Post on X by Raoul Paul