January is prediction month.

 

It’s cold! Hauling out the garbage this morning, that biting -39 Celsius nearly froze my face right off in seconds.

 

Chilling relations -- the political-economic newsfeed has potential to get as weird this year as it’s been since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when I was in diapers (the first time). They’re calling this Cold War 2, which seems apt. Coming off an investment conference this week, analysts suggest that geopolitical factors are likely to play a role this year, although pinning down the behavior of capricious dictators is very hard.

 

If 2023 was all about taming inflation, 2024 seems poised to be about geopolitics and how softly (or not) the US economy lands as we continue to stretch the distance between us and the pandemic.

 

Global Insights Weekly:

 

The downside of up

Global bonds are coming off one of their best performances in decades as expectations swelled late last year that central banks could soon pivot to rate cuts. But could a reacceleration in inflation put that narrative in jeopardy to start the new year?

 

Regional developments: Canadian banks may face fewer headwinds in 2024; U.S. earnings expectations continue to slide; Is the worst behind the euro area economy? China ETFs saw record inflows in 2023

 

• More here: Global Insight Weekly.

 

A One-Minute Economic Update – New Year 2024:

Progress against inflation has ignited both bonds and stocks as the need for additional tightening of monetary policy is removed. While the threat of recession in early 2024 remains as the full force of prior rate hikes feeds through, the next cycle is moving into view.

 

• More here: 1-Minute-2024

 

Charts Tell a Story:

 

Inflation Taming:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In China: A painful price adjustment is underway in real estate, and a painful demographic rabbit hole is in the making, forecasting shrinkage in their workforce by 60% by the end of the century

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did Somebody Say Geopolitics? This next, very busy calendar-graph shows that 2024 should be a busy year.

 

 

And that’s probably enough to ponder on a frigid weekend!

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

Mark