A few topics our newsletter touches on this week:
- Our Thoughts
- Long read - Global Insight Monthly May 2020
- New episodes in RBC podcast series “10 Minute Take”
- Listen – The Transition from Lockdown to Reopening with Jim Allworth
- Distraction content
Our Thoughts
It is sobering to consider the number of lost jobs we have seen in Canada and elsewhere as a result of the lockdowns. Hence why many people ask us why the stock markets have been rallying - but stock and bond prices are weighing mechanisms that anticipate the future rather than just what has already happened. The easing of lockdown restrictions varies by geography but the gradual reopening of economies has clearly begun. The million dollar question is how much of a recovery can we expect? Specifically, we want to understand the early trajectory of the economic recovery to appreciate whether the market’s assumption of a return to more normal levels by the Summer/Fall is warranted.
The level of information available today to provide real time information on this is staggering, whether through satellite monitoring, online search trends, traffic congestion, air pollution, mobility tracing, and restaurant bookings. These are just a few of the hundreds if not thousands of “high frequency data” that are collected from our cell phones, watches, cars, and computers, among other things. This data illustrates in real time the level of activity that is taking place. It has already been used to measure the degree of re-engagement of society and economic recovery in China. We expect it to play an equally important role as investors turn their attention to the pending recoveries in North America and Europe.
Our focus remains on the long-term, so we are unlikely to alter our approach to managing your portfolios based on traffic congestion trends. Nevertheless, we will be monitoring with interest. We will share our insights as we learn more in the weeks to come.
Read – Global Insight Monthly May 2020
As always, Global Insight also provides our latest thoughts on asset classes, the economy, and timely issues that impact investment strategy. This month, the focus is on the shadow cast by COVID-19 on profits and GDP growth, as well as thoughts on what is in store for the oil market. Please take some time to review this month’s Global Insight.
The 10 Minute Take – RBC Podcast Series *new episodes*
New episodes will get posted regularly to discuss various issues front and center during the COVID-19 crisis. Recent highlights include episodes about commercial real estate and lessons from Australia during this crisis. Check out the latest episodes here.
Listen – The Transition from Lockdown to Reopening an Update with Jim Allworth
Mark Bayko, member of the Global Portfolio Advisory Committee (GPAC) is joined by Jim Allworth, Co-Chair of GPAC to discuss the most recent developments and outlook going forward. They touch on the psychological impact that may linger for some, the outlook for equities and oil, and how the crisis may have accelerated some business trends that were already in place. Listen here (approximately 19-minute duration).
Distraction Content
With nice weather upon us, people are increasingly outside, but if you are staying home, Global has a great list of free online activities during quarantine here. Many of us have taken up baking during quarantine, and the article includes several Instagram tutorials being given by top chefs and bakeries if you are so inclined.
Our team is here for you
We are all working remotely, so the best way to communicate with us continues to be by phone, e-mail or video chat. We are also available if you have friends or family who might be seeking a consult on their portfolio, wealth or estate planning goals.
Regards,
Mark, Peter, Sarah, Corinne & Andrea